Well, we’ve had our say about The Frau’s jackbooted myopic single minded policies. And we’ve had our say about The Great IMF fixes. But what can you say about a government celebrating and jumping for joy over….? Well, over the fact that through all their combined efforts they have finally managed to bankrupt their country officially!!!

Hurray! Hurray!

So from what we are being told, and for what that may be worth, it looks as if ultimately the infamous Frau inspired ‘orderly’ default by Greece will not be as orderly as designed. We are being told that we will not attain the 90% ‘involvement’ necessary but something closer to the 75% which means, we are told again, that the CACs will have to be activated in which case this will no longer be a ‘voluntary’ deal.

Now what does that mean? Surely all those who have invested in Credit Default Swaps on Greek debt will demand their pound of flesh. However, Oli Rehn the Commissioner for all this mess says ‘that is something we do not want’. But it’s not up to him, is it? So how will this work? Law suits, long drawn out haggling? More mess added to the one already created?

And what about ‘others’ deciding they need a haircut too? It could happen.

And in any case, none of this, however it is set to play out, will do anything to help solve the Greek and consequently the European crisis. Already rumours going around that the German Minister of Finances Schauble has suggested that perhaps Greece might be better off if it left the Euro (and that would go a long way to explain the excruciating austerity punishment being meted out to Greece instead of anything remotely resembling growth.)

In any case, if anyone imagines that this hair brained PSI scheme, however it plays out, will do anything to help solve the Euro crisis, they are quite mistaken. This is merely splashing more oil on the raging fire.

Well, in this context Godot is the infamous PSI or Greek default by another less odious name. The deadline for this act of ‘voluntary’ sacrifice is Thursday midnight (Greek time? European time? GMT? US East coast? Don’t really know…).

Despite the obvious panic shown by all parties involved, from EU Commissioner Oli Rhen to our own parody of a Minister of Finance (who simply loves to bluster!), it appears this whole disgraceful exercise will go through. Not necessarily smoothly but with an enormous fudge. That is, as likely as not the CACs will have to be activated (making the supposedly voluntary exchange compulsory after all) in which case the CDS outstanding will be claimed, and probably be paid unless the last vestiges of credibility of the bankrupt banking system are sacrificed. And everybody will be very happy. Except for the people of Greece who are being steadily sacrificed for this madness.

However, perhaps owing to the limited ability of The Frau’s mind (and her whole coterie, not to mention the greatest and best of the European nomenclature) a slight little problem is going undetected. The growing possibility of war. War? What war? How can anything in the world be more important than The Frau’s dictate that everyone must balance their books although it means destroying their economies through Hayekian* logic!? So what war could possibly concern Europe?

And don’t tell me the spineless little Greeks are going to rebel? Ha, ha!! Hell no! Look at them cringe! And look at how we’ve terrorized them and cowed them into utter submission! No problem with that mish mash of sub human people.

Well no, actually, the war looming and becoming more likely to explode by the day, is the Middle East conflict. The escalation of threats and brinkmanship over Teheran’s supposed nuclear capacity. It is clear that President Obama wishes to avoid such a dangerous and meaningless conflict, but it is also clear that Bibi with the backing of the Israeli lobby in the US do want a ‘preventive’ strike against Iran, even though no one doubts that Iran does not have such a capability and does not even seem set to develop one.

The war of words is escalating. This is an election year in the US meaning particularly powerful lobbies are particularly dangerous at the moment. Given this situation a maverick act by Israel against Iran drawing the US in of necessity is looking likelier by the day.

Meanwhile Europe’s back door has been left wide open. Greece is on the floor, prostrate, destroyed both politically and economically. What’s to motivate her to put up a fight? (Let alone with what resources? None left. Thank you Angela.) Allegiance to Europe? I don’t think so. Self preservation? Yes well… But where might this be sought? With those whose myopic, ideologically charged policies have lead to the destruction of Greece? Or elsewhere, perhaps?

In 1454, when the Byzantine Empire had been conquered by the Ottomans, Archbishop Gennadios was ordained Patriarch of Constantinople by the Sultan. It is reported that he said, Better the Turkish Turban than the Catholic Miter, because the powers of “Western” Europe had not seen any point in responding to the Emperor Palaiologos’ desperate pleas for help in the light of the growing threat from the Ottomans, who ultimately prevailed.

What has this got to do with anything? Who knows? Perhaps Europe should start thinking of its back door? Last time around the Ottoman army reached Vienna. Out of context! Today has nothing to do with any of that! Perhaps. Nevertheless, it often helps to consult history even though it appears to be quite true that the only thing we learn from history is that we never learn from history.

Once again, batten down the hatches! The tornado is set to do a lot of uprooting. Wake up! Leave the books to the accountants and remember, you are supposed to be politicians! (God help us! If even he can any more…)

* Freidrich Hayek whose theories are pitted against those of John Maynard Keynes. Historically  when Keynesian economics have ruled the day, life has been much better. Here is a little spoof rap video on the matter that you may find amusing. Incidentally neither gentleman was in fact American. Keynes British and Hayek Austrian.

I start with a slight misquote from Shakespeare’s ‘Hamlet’*. Whether quoted properly or misquoted, it means when you are so vociferously adamant in your insistence about something it is often because you know damn well it isn’t going to happen!

So who is it protesting too much? Well, our disappointing mediocre Chairman of the European Commission, Manuel Baroso, for one. He is adamant that the Euro is here to stay and that all who are in the monetary union will remain so!

Whoops! Batten down the hatches! Get ready for the raging storm!

The Frau’s brilliant idea of involving the Private Sector in the so called Greek bailout (in fact Bank bailout) does not appear so far to be going as planned judging from the frantic pleas, not only from for what passes for the Greek Minister of Finances, but also from Mr Charles Dallara, Managing Director of the IIF (brutally press ganged into this hair brained idea by The Frau) who has warned that should Greece be forced into a disorderly default it would cost trillions!!

So another two protesting too much. But that is not all. Europe is ‘officially’ in recession and looks set to be continuing down this path till, say the ‘experts’ the summer. (Of course that means nothing, the forecast that is. Anything could and probably will happen between now and the summer, for better or for worse!) The Frau might do well to notice such things resulting directly from her utter mismanagement of this crisis.

But perhaps most important of all Lombard Research has come to the conclusion that The Netherlands would be better off outside the Euro. Perhaps everybody would! Only how would one go about untying this Gordian Knot?

Yes indeed. Alexander’s would be the only way. But of course it would hurt. But it’s not as if The Frau’s idiotic ideas are not already hurting and set to hurt everybody far more! Degree of pain? Well. We shall have to wait and see.

But when so many are protesting so much, not least threatening, like the Greek Minister of Finances Venizelos (which is all he ever does. Blusters and threatens us with Armageddon instead of doing his job properly like overhauling our ailing tax system say) then things do not feel reassuring.

*The actual quote being ‘The Lady doth protest too much, methinks.’

Today I would like to share with you another lovely animated talk on what is going on here. It is a talk by David Harvey illustrated by RSA Animated. Greece goes bang as the original problem is pushed around geographically instead of being solved, because that is how capitalism works.

There are two rather delightful parts in this animation. The first to do with the Queen of England’s simple question to the greatest and best economists at the LSE. Why did none of you foresee what was coming? (The 2008 crash). Which, as I commented at the time was akin to the story of the little boy crying out, “But the King has no clothes!” Only in a delicious twist of irony it was the Queen who cried out that all these erudite economists with their theories (theories put into practice on undeserving citizens like Argentines and Chileans before us and now the Greeks, with a vengeance) and forecasts (which they never get right, see Greek tragedy again) were really quite naked!

The second point I would like to stress particularly for those of us here in Greece is the one about politicians’ promises. Apparently we shall be allowed to hold elections within a couple of months because it looks as if the two parties directly responsible for the destruction of Greece will be able to patch up another coalition government, perhaps under another Quisling or the same one we have now. So, when (and if) the time comes for us to confront the ballot box we must remember that all the politicians’ promises are nothing but “Crap”!

Of course we may not be allowed to hold elections at all, ultimately, if all goes wrong with the ‘voluntary’ haircut and the new loan agreement. It has by now become common knowledge that neither is the Greek debt sustainable, whatever kind of a trim may be effected, nor are the terms of these new colonial impositions on Greece designed at all realistically and hence nothing is going to “work”!

So, just carry on screwing the people to save the banks. In the end Greece will go bang and as likely as not pull down the rest of the Temple with us.

Well, to be quite fair, for all her formidable powers, The Frau hasn’t quite made the mess that is Europe single handedly. Nevertheless, if Nobel prizes for utter mess making were being handed out she would be the prime candidate.

All the best ideas currently in the processes of destroying Europe have derived directly from The Frau. Such as the binding law to outlaw Keynes, for instance. (Which may not even be passed by the German Parliament. We are in for lots of laughs at least.)

Now we have to wait and see how the infamous PSI for Greece will work out. The exchange of bonds by the private sector whereby they shall lose something over 50% of their holdings in Greek bonds. Otherwise known as a ‘haircut’. This again was an exclusive idea of The Frau’s which Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, hastened to describe as a ‘political’ decision. That is a nutty decision that has no relation to economics and finance. As are most of The Frau’s decisions. Such as spanking austerity over the whole continent at the cost of growth.

Now the whole point of this rigmarole of the PSI is not to lighten the burden of Greek Debt since this could be achieved by so many different and simpler ways than this convoluted doubtful process. And besides, for a saving of, we are told, something like 100 bill. Euro we shall then be lent another 130 billion at least, which does not sound like debt lightening to me. Nor is it a way of trying to get Greece back into the borrowing markets again. If anything, the only thing this will achieve is to keep Greece out of the borrowing markets for a very long time.

So why go to all this trouble and uncertainty rather than just declare a default on payments? Well, the CDS or Credit Default Swaps, instruments purchased and traded to ensure against a Greek default, must NOT be paid out! How could the banks afford these? The Banks! For god’s sake! At all cost save the Banks! Which is what this whole Greek ‘bailout’ charade has been all about from the very beginning. “Save the Banks, Screw the people!” as it has been memorably put by David Harvey.

Yes. OK. Save the Banks. But if this is done at the cost of the real economy, as is happening, and there is nothing left but barren destruction, then just what business will there be left for the banks? Just a silly thought.

Well, this one ended up on an upbeat note of euphoria. Everyone was happy, chummy, smiley. But then they usually are, aren’t they? These images of Europe’s greatest and best chumming around in Brussels all laughs and party socializing while they wreak havoc on the peoples of Europe. Yes. We’re used to that.

This time however, The Frau in particular looked unusually relaxed and happy. Why shouldn’t she be? We were all treated to that pathetic image of the 25 member states signing on the dotted line to her pet idiocy. One that has been aptly called The Frau’s outlawing of Keynes! Oh yes. They passed the book around each adding his or her signature binding his or her state to something they KNOW is unreal, destructive and positively unworkable. Nevertheless they all cheerfully signed up so as not to incur The Frau’s wrath.

Except for the UK and the Czech Republic. We will do well to remember that in future. It is going to make a difference.

Only… whoops! What a minute! Holland, the last of the remaining AAA rated Eurocountries and a staunch minion of The Frau realised, that what a minute! All this austerity we’ve been practicing under The Frau’s iron jackboot, sort of well, sort of isn’t working! No way we can keep our deficit down to The Frau’s required levels. Oh really? Shouldn’t they have perhaps noticed that BEFORE signing up to The Frau’s crazy bee in her bonnet?

And then all the empty talk about ‘growth’ (which they suddenly remembered as a nice word without content however) and job creation. At a time when The Frau’s undisputed policies have lead to the highest unemployment rate throughout Europe. If you perked up, drop your ears again. Oh no, said The Frau. We still have a long way to go with the sovereign debt and deficits problem before we can contemplate anything as frivolous as growth for God’s sake. And everybody nodded again.

Of course the great European experiment which is poor little Greece is now being called upon to show how stringent, catastrophic austerity can be combined with growth. Well that’s what they said. And even our own inept technocrat Prime Minister smiled happily at that. Does he believe any of the rubbish he’s been spewing out to us? I hate to think so. Perhaps he’s looking forward to becoming governor of the world bank or something. Certainly not to anything constructive happening in Greece. Not if he can help it!

Anyway, in the light of all this misplaced euphoria, is the Euro and Euroland about to crash or what?

For the first time since it’s inception unemployment in the European Union has gone up to 10%! This great achievement has been brought about single handedly by The Frau and her little band!

But this is not all. The shining example of solving the Great Greek problem is nearing its close too. No matter that the economy of this insignificant little country has been destroyed with unemployment at 20% and a protracted depression which has eaten away at something like 25% of GDP (and counting).

This is to be crowned by the country’s official default which is supposed to be voluntarily (as voluntary as a confession to the Spanish inquisition as someone has recently famously put it). It remains to be seen whether even this miserable little plan devised by The Frau herself will in fact play out as she hopes.

If this is going to be the way of things to come, then the EU should either just disband gracefully OR!! Take the show away from delusional little leaders who think the EU is a class room where you punish the naughty boy or girl as viciously as you can (six of the best on a naked little bottom in plain view of the class room as a whole) and expect everyone else to be terrorized into submission!

Enough! Europeans unite against the tyranny of those with the most limited intelligence and the most limitless vindictiveness!

On the occasion of Meryl Streep’s Oscar winning performance of the Iron Lady I would like to say that my opinion of the original was never high. Sort of ‘Maggie Maggie the milk snatcher’ level perhaps. From snatches on TV it appears that Ms Streep’s performance was indeed excellent. Even getting down to the Lady’s own fundamental fakeness in her accent.

Now as to whether it was a good film I have no idea. I shall not be going to see it, not only because of long standing allergies to the old lady but because nearly all reviews agree that the actual script it terrible. But in the context of this blog there is one thing I do feel constrained to admit in her favour after all.

That is that although I felt Thatcher was quite wrong over most things, like the Falklands War, the Miners’ Strike and perhaps above all her shrill contentions that ‘There is no such thing as society’ and worse of all that ‘There is no alternative!’ (All pronounced with glass shattering shrillness), she was right about one thing.

She was adamant the Germany should not be reunited. It is a shame that although she is still alive, she is not in a position to realise that in that, at least, she has been vindicated.

So… Germany did not like to hear what it was told at the G20. Which was quite simple really. And something Germany should have been the first to relate to.  Simply put, the message for Europe (that means Germany of course… but we shall come to this), was ‘Get your house in order and we shall see what we can do’.

Basically it is Germany’s own message to her own dominions. Isn’t that what Greece and the other GIPSIs are being told by Germany herself? Get your house in order!!! Never mind how. Kill off half your population, let the rest work for a starvation wage, but get your house in order!

So Germany was told that no new moneys could be forthcoming through the IMF if the Eurozone itself did not put more into their own slush funds, the EFSF and EMS (and E whatever else for that matter). The Eurozone is perfectly able to do so. But the problem is The Frau doesn’t want to! So there!

Just who are these third world former colonies to tell the Great Germany what it should be doing? So The Frau has gone into a sulk and decided to scrap the meeting of Euroland Ministers of Finances due to be held at the beginning of the month because The Frau doesn’t even want to talk about it! And if The Frau doesn’t want it, then that is final.

Which brings us to the real problem of the European Union. Which is not the sovereign debt crisis, nor the deep recession it is facing, nor the budget deficits, but its very identity.

Just what is the European Union today? Deutschland with its lebensraum. That’s it. Whatever The Frau gets into her limited little brain is what becomes law for the rest. Sort of what Lola wants Lola gets. I thought this version in Greek with Italian subtitles was quite fitting.