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Know How

Angela Merkel grew up  and studied in Communist East Germany and earned a degree in physics there. Antonis Samaras grew up in Greece and studied for a degree in Economics in the USA, Amherst College no less, both capitalist economies.

Angela Merkel tells Samaras that even though his country is already in deep depression (of 1930s proportions) he must ratchet up the austerity, cut everything, impose more taxes in order to “stabilise” the Greek Economy. And after he has done that, he can perhaps start thinking about growth.

Antonis Samaras who actually preens himself that he is an Economist, presumably should know that such a policy is simply warped because stringent austerity on an economy in free fall like the Greek economy will only lead to complete destabilization. Destabilization of the economy with higher debt to GDP ratios and worse deficits of its very nature, but also destabilization of society with growing unrest, and before long open insurrection.

However, the Capitalist bred and USA educated (In Economics don’t forget) Samaras decided to take Merkel’s word for it not only without question, but publicly declaring that he had sinned when he had said her policies would lead to… where? Exactly where they have led.

Strange fellow that Samaras. Does a complete and Nonsensical about turn just when he has been vindicated.

More Nonsense Economics From The Great Tactician

So here we are at another impasse. In order for the 31 bn tranche in so called “bailout” money to be disbursed, Greece has to make cuts and taxation of 11,5 bn… no, make that 11,9 says Schauble, well okay, but… perhaps 13,9 bn is better… oh what the hell make it a round 15 bn for now, and then next year we will shave off another 15 bn because we won’t have achieved the targets.

There, now everybody is happy. What? The Greek people? They are not happy? Who gives a toss about the Greek people anyway? Next year we shall indeed introduce the “you’re lucky to still be alive” tax because that is all that there will be left to tax. But what a minute. What do I hear? Poul Thomsen of the infamous troika is also not happy? What else does he want!

The cuts are over 5% of GDP, the taxation is no longer just exorbitant but impossible (state revenues are already running at least 3 bn short of income taxes that should have been paid in by now just for this year), so what else does he want? What else can we give him? Blood?

Not quite. He says standing in imperial garb looking down at the arena. The gladiator Greek government is holding its blooded sword poised over the public sector employees after he has already run his sword through a quarter of private employees, half of small shop keepers, most of middling businesses and anyone else he could catch and slay without hurting his pet, the public employees.

In his show of slashing and axing all the others, with so much blood dripping from his sword he feels he has earned the right to save his pets. The public employees. So with sword in hand and a promise to the Emperor to kill off those left standing in Greece, he looks up at him, Emperor Poul, expecting to get the thumbs up for the public sector.

But no! Horror! After wavering and waiting till the Greek government gladiator has done its best to slash and axe everyone else, he suddenly turns his thumb down. No! He says. You’re always playing sneaky games with me to save your pets. No more. Slash 150,000 of them now! Or else!

So gladiator images aside, what is the state of play? Quite simple really. After benignly watching Europe tear itself to pieces and plunge its economy into recession, an outcome they have to admit, they initially gave their blessing and know how to achieve, the IMF has been given a jolt. Hey fellas, they say, after all that, Greek debt is not sustainable (hardly a surprise when more and more money was piled on to an over indebted economy to be laundered through Greece and given to the banks.)

So what do we do now? Well, under IMF rules (Angela please note)  if debt is not sustainable it has to pull out. However since Greece is neither Botswana say of even Argentina in that it is a Euro currency country, we just can’t let them drop because what will happen to the Euro then? Otherwise we would have no qualms of course. As we have never had any ever before.

The solution is simple. Says the IMF. Another drastic haircut of Greece’s debt. That is the Official Sector should take the rap now, which means the rich north European Countries, Germany above all. Hey wait a minute! Screams Merkel. You can’t do that to me! I have elections coming! How can I tell my voters that we’ve lost all the money we ploughed into Greece? I can hardly tell them now that we didn’t plough it into Greece but through Greece to our own banks now can I?

Okay. Says the IMF. In that case give them the extension, there is no way they can meet targets in 2 years, (not even 100 years under this policy, bit still) and fork out another 30 to 50 bn to keep them going. What??? Splutters Merkel, choking on her beer. I can’t do that either! How could I possibly tell my voters that nothing worked (okay, well that I will blame on the Greeks themselves) and that we have to fork out More Money? They just won’t go for it. Not after the way I have painted the Greeks as lazy, profligate good for nothings, undeserving pigs, will they?

So now all of a sudden we start hearing strange noises from the Commission. Well, actually, you know, the Greek deficit is not nearly as bad as we feared. The short fall is much less. Don’t worry, they murmur behind their hands. We will see to it that the “independent” troika report is couched in terms that will make the disbursement to Greece possible. Of course we certainly won’t actually give them any more money, except for a bare minimum to pay the ECB in full for the Greek bonds it bought at rock bottom prices. Otherwise not a cent of what we have promised.

In this way we shall keep them hanging on for a about another year, while they complete the process of destroying their country, and drop them after The Frau has been safely reelected. Or maybe just before the election to gain maximum benefit from getting rid of Greece before the fall out hits us. The Great tactician is very pleased with herself. She knows that Samaras will do anything she tells him just for a pat on the head, even jump through a flaming hoop, or destroy his own country. So her brilliant well thought out scheme of kicking the can down the road will win again!

But hang on, Poul Thomsen, head of the troika mission and IMF representative is not playing ball. No! He says. We cannot fudge this. He says. The Greeks cannot be trusted. If they want any more financing they must fire 150,000 public sector employees on the spot. Now! But Poul, the other two whimper, if we push them, the coalition may break up! It won’t. Says Poul rightly. These stooges would vote in anything we asked for. Even rejoining the Ottoman Empire if that was what we told them to do.

Well okay, you are probably right there… But what about the people? What people says? Poul. The Greeks are not people at all. They are Guinea Pigs and quite expendable. But what if they start rioting in the streets? Gas them. Says Poul. That is what is usually done in Greece anyway. They could even fire rubber bullets at them. Like in Spain. Or if push comes to shove, real bullets. It always works. That is my position and that is final.

In the meantime Mr Roumeliotes, the Greek representative to the IMF during the Papandreou bid to have recourse to the fund, has come up with somewhat belated interviews to the American press and a book telling all. How from the beginning the fund saw this policy would be disastrous, that they only went along to keep The Frau happy and strange things like that.

Not to mention what Paul Krugman tells us that the IMF analysts have worked out (they really are very brilliant there and no doubt extremely well paid and tax free at that too) that if you impose austerity on an economy in recession things get much worse. I can only marvel at what must have been intricate mathematical calculations and models that helped them work that one out! (Or perhaps one of them just took a summer vacation to Greece).

So, since they cannot get through to the stubborn little Frau who has only the best intentions for herself, could it be the IMF will try to force her hand? How? By making the Greek terms so obnoxious, so impossible that the Greeks will finally rebel and shout out the Collective No! OXI! No more! And default themselves?

If this is their plan I hope they have taken the Samaras factor into account. He has already told The Frau that he sinned when he railed against the Memorandum and the way it was ruining Greece. He has already personally guaranteed that all Greek debt will be paid. (Interesting that one). And pledged Greece body and soul to carry out the most excruciating and destructive terms set by Europe.

P.S. And to think, Samaras’ grandmother, the aristocratic author P.S. Delta, committed suicide when she heard the German Army was marching in to Athens and occupying Greece.

The Markets Rule But The Markets Are Daft

The Spanish budget cuts proved a great boost to The Markets because it brings Spain closer to being forced to ask for the OMT bail out and stringent austerity strings attached. Hollande has to implement stringent budget cuts otherwise the markets are poised to off load French bonds.

In other words The Markets are only delighted when States are forced into taking measures that will destroy their economies? Anything that accelerates economic decline such as cuts in a recession (thank you Paul Krugman) and causes harsh and counter productive pain on citizens is applauded and rewarded by The Markets. The value of the bonds of the countries meeting out this lethal punishment to its citizens goes up.

Well, if the markets are not daft, then a conspiracy theory could explain it. They shoot the value of bonds high so as to profit, when inevitably these bonds will be reduced to Junk status once the infamous austerity measures start to bight in causing recession and unemployment to rocket sky high.

Since I do not believe in conspiracy theories I have to take the position that The Markets are daft and the politicians running after them even dafter!

The Fat Lady Sings?

I started off this blog with an image. In my attempt to portray the troika’s policy I said it was like wanting to push a fat lady through a key hole and that whatever you did it was just impossible. Nevertheless, the troika, in their collective arrogance, knew that they could do it. So they set about starving and beating the fat lady into shape.

After two years the fat lady is no longer fat. She is worn and emaciated and very angry. And she still can’t fit through the key hole despite the troika’s and the Greek government’s best efforts to starve her even more and knock her about to make her more compliant.

Now, I had asked the naive question of, well why don’t they just open the door to let her through? The answer, as we have now come to realise is because the ultimate object of the exercise is to turn Greece (and the other southern European states in turn) into a neo liberal paradise where workers will have no rights and no wages to speak of.

But in this need to revert to a Dickensian jungle of cruelty and  grief, they have overlooked one thing (well perhaps many). The weak emaciated lady whom they do not tire of torturing will either die on the spot and make a terrible stink that will whizz round the world and show Europe up in its true cruel, imperilaistic, heartless colours. Colours that will remind many around the world of the erstwhile Great European Empires and how vassals were treated.

Or else she may just sing her swan song. And mustering all the strength left in her weak and frail body, turn around and give the collective powers that be, Greek government and troika, such a punch in the face that it will send them reeling. Because really friends, they have only clay legs to stand on and it is about time we collectively realised that and put a stop to this cruel, heartless and I would add, pointless, insanity.

When the fat lady sings, only then will it be over.

The IMF Rule Book

So push has come to shove. Poul Thomsen is kicking up a rumpus in Greece, throwing his lethal spanner in the troika’s works, in order to force their hands. Whose hands? Those of the two European prongs of the dreaded satanical troika. Why, all of a sudden? Instead of going three by three, they now go one on his own and the other two together. Has the troika snapped under the weight of its imbecility?

Well Mme Lagarde, aka Marie Antoinette has come out with it. The Greek debt is not sustainable. You don’t say Madame? What she doesn’t say is that the Greek debt is not sustainable not least because of the gruelling, idiotic regime, concocted and inspired by the IMF imposed on Greece. Plunging the country into a deep depression while piling more and more debt on it (to go to external banks and not the Greek economy) surely was not going to help, now was it?

But no, though Mme Lagarde has had the brilliance to realise that Greek debt is not sustainable, she brushes aside the why and comes up with even better remedies! There should be another haircut, to be borne by the European Official sector and the Greeks should just hurry up and give all their assets away. Pronto!

Hmmm, now. What do you think of that? The Lady is nothing if not a genius. No wonder her erstwhile best friend and partner in crime, The Frau does not seem to care much for this scheme. First of all why should the European Official sector pay and not the IMF too? Ah, Frau Merkel. Those are the rules. The IMF never pays. And you know you must stick to the rules! You can’t bend them now, can you?

Besides, did you not know the rules when you decided to call the IMF in to handle the EZ debt crisis? If you didn’t, that was your fault and there is no way a German Chancellor of any caliber can plead ignorance of the rules. You knew what you were doing. You brought the IMF in because of their “expertise” in these matters. An expertise that has lead to the complete shambles of the Eurozone. For which you are equally to blame.

Now the second prong of Marie Antoinette’s brilliant solution to the problem. Greece must sell off all her assets at rock bottom prices. At once! Now what to make of that? Well, that is what the IMF is all about. That is what the IMF program aspires to do. The IMF has one program it applies everywhere. That is, you get rid of all troublesome welfare and healthcare. You impose “flexibility” in the labour market (which means in effect that you abolish all labour rights, slash wages and try to bring the labour force as near penury and slavery as you can.)

And the main object of the exercise is that you despoil the hapless country of all its assets. So, having achieved the first prong of its program it now wants to speed up the second. But dear Christine, in a country your own policies have brought to the brink of a Grexit, how do you suppose such a fire sale can be achieved? Who is going to buy even at rock bottom prices when they know that these Euro rock bottom prices will soon become devalued drachma even lower prices?

Something didn’t work now did it? And something tells me this new little Marie Antoinette brainwave is very close to the original “Let them eat cake”. And we all know where that led.

"You Have Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself" – FDR

Today the Greek news media are on strike. And it is a salutary atmosphere. We are being spared all the complete and utter nonsense being spewed out about the cuts daily. All the base corner grocery book keeping, that treats state finances as no different from the corner grocery shop. (In fact even the corner grocery shop does realise that some cuts may be counter productive, which the troika and Greek government do not.)

We have to cut, we are told, another 12 bn or so (that is ANOTHER 5% of GDP no less) in order to balance the books. But by cutting demand out of the economy we shall  diminish revenue. Not to worry, say the brains of our government, we will just slap extra exorbitant taxes on property. No matter that properties lie vacant, or those still being rented, nominally, have no revenue either because the tenants simply cannot manage to pay the whole rent and never on time and on the other hand Mr Venizelos’ brain wave of the property tax through the electricity bill has sucked up any revenue left from renting and in effect has devastated the economy.

Never mind about any of that. Besides, we are told beamingly, “the atmosphere in Europe has changed”! A shining example is the French PM’s plea that “Greece be given more time”! More time to do what? Ruin its economy completely, turn Greece over to its “creditors” lock stock and barrel? Sell its people into slavery? What else will “more time” achieve? Yanis Varoufakis has already said that any extension would be tantamount to Greece being given more rope to hang itself with. Something that has been taken up and repeated consistently by Tsipras.

Another arrant lie we are being told by the government: That these will be the last such cuts! Now the operative word here is “such”, there will more more cuts, in other words but not quite “such” cuts. Meaning what? Nonsense. The government are already trying to project as a victory the troika’s demands that should targets not be met (and everyone knows that there is no way that they will be met) then pensions and public salaries will be slashed even more by the end of next year. Automatically.

Isn’t that great?

Perhaps in the welcome silence of all these cruel and ineffective inanities it is time we started pondering a simple fact. The EZ has no intention of helping Greece out of the hole it has only helped push it further into. The EZ has no interest in trying to put the economy back on track. Perhaps it is time that the Greeks realised they have no interest in fawning to the EZ and persisting in the destruction of their economy out of fear.

Fear of what? That what is happening to us slowly and irreversibly will happen suddenly, but in a way that can be eventually reversed?

The great man, and perhaps only now can we realise just how great he was, Franklin Delano Roosevelt once famously said, “You have nothing to fear but fear itself”.

It is time the Greek people realised as much.

Samaras And The Bridge Over The River Kwai

In 1957 a brilliant WWII film came out called The Bridge Over The River Kwai. I can’t help thinking that Samaras is now doing exactly what the hapless British commanding officer, Nicholson, was doing in the film. Although this is a very famous film (perhaps because of its very poignancy), I would like to remind you of the plot.

Nicholson (admirably played by Alec Guinness) is in command of the British Army prisoners forced by the Japanese to build the infamous bridge over the river Kwai, of paramount importance for the Japanese forces. After some initial struggles over the Geneva conventions and so forth, Nicholson takes it upon himself as a matter of honour, to prove British prowess and competence, to build this bridge, although he knows of course that it is in Japan’s, the enemy’s that is, interests and detrimental to the British.

Samaras, in his turn, has taken it personally upon himself to carry out the terms of the Memorandum, though he presumable knows that it is detrimental to Greek interests but serves those of the troika. He knows this very well because for the past two years he had been shouting it from the rooftops, and analysing why these terms are so destructive for his own country. But, as for Nicholson, it is a matter of honour. Greece, he tells us, must regain her credibility.

Like Nicholson he throws himself into this project, and the project becomes the only thing that is important for him to the exclusion of every other consideration.  The fact that this project is detrimental to his own country’s interests is completely forgotten. Nicholson wanted to prove British superiority in building a bridge that would serve the enemy. Samaras wants to prove that he is credible by unflinchingly imposing a program that everyone knows will lead to the collapse of the Greek economy.

Nicholson finds himself working with the Japanese commander against the interests of his own country. He is not a traitor, he has just lost sight of what is really at stake and thinks that building the bridge is the only thing that matters in the world, totally forgetting he is serving the enemy and not his country.

Samaras too has got caught up in this short sighted attempt to prove his “credibility” and never mind if he is serving the “enemy” and not his country. He thinks he will have proved something if he does everything the “enemy” wants and too bad if its against the fate of Greece.

Nicholson finds himself, in his blind conceit, working against the allied saboteurs who want to blow up the bridge, and working with the Japanese against his own side. Unwittingly. This is the tragedy of the film. And this is the tragedy of Samaras.

Although he knows the project is a catastrophe for his own country’s interests he has thrown himself into applying the terms of this project as an end in itself, regardless of the terrible consequences for Greece.

Only at the very end of the film does Nicholson suddenly realise and cries out “what have I done!”,  just before being shot and falling on the detonator himself which blows up the bridge. The bridge he had been struggling to save because it was his achievement, and he had lost sight of everything beyond that.  Just as Samaras has done now.

The end of the film was redemptive at least. In that Nicholson is suddenly jolted out of his short sighted idiocy. I doubt whether Samaras’ end (as Prime Minister that is) will be his moment of epiphany.

 

Depression And Despair

And the Nonsense Economics continues. The troika in Greece. More cuts. More taxes now. In other words the troika aided and abetted by the brilliant Samaras who has personally guaranteed to repay all the debt (!) are proving that Einstein’s definition of stupidity is quite right. Doing the same thing again only thinking it will have a different result this time.

Meanwhile Spaniards are, apparently, emigrating in droves to Argentina. Now, given that here in Greece at any rate, and elsewhere, we are constantly being told what a disaster Argentina is and how things are still terrible there, then what does this mean? That things are really bad in Argentina but so much worse in Spain? Or, maybe, that things are not so bad in Argentina.

Whichever it is, the common factor of both conclusions is that things in Europe are awful. And set to go from bad to worse the way things are. Recession is turning into Depression (in Greece we are already there) and Depression is engendering Despair. Now this last rather suits the Europowers that be, because it leads to inertia. Though for how long, remains to be seen.

Spain and Italy are close to panic because under the present German iron boot of Nonsense Economics, they will be forced to plunge their economies into  depression in order to activate the Draghi bond buying system. Which rather invalidates the whole object of the exercise, but still. It is not for nothing that Professor Yanis Varoufakis has aptly said, of the causes of the global crisis that “…Europe [is] at the forefront of organized idiocy.”

Now Mario Monti is meeting the leaders of the stricken countries today. Not all together but one by one. It is certainly a long overdue reaction. That the stricken states of the periphery, the ones already bound and gagged and sentenced to destitution like Ireland and Greece, and the ones destined for the chopping block, Spain and Italy, should indeed get together and try and build up some defence, some resistance to The Frau’s destructive juggernaut.

Why am I not so optimistic? Well, Samaras has pledged his body and soul (and that of Greece too which he was not entitled to do) to The Frau and her bidding. His sole purpose in life is to become teacher’s pet, suck up to The Frau and agree to every aspect of her Nonsense Economics currently ruining Greece (and not only her economy), in order to remain Prime Minister for as long as he can.

Will he see any sense if Monti does in fact propose some? Or, as is more likely, reverting to type, will he not go running to teacher to tell on the bad boys of the class instead, in the hope that he will get a pat on the head? Never mind if this pat on the head comes with even more destructive strings attached.

I have to agree with many that this policy is dangerously close to treason. With all that that entails.

Italian premier Mario Monti, left,  welcomes Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, at Palazzo Chigi government office, in Rome, Friday, Sept. 21, 2012.

Photograph from the Guardian.

Is he being led to the firing squad? Perhaps he should think about that possibility. It might just shock some sense into him.

Why Samaras Does Not Have A Chance In Hell Of Achieving Anything

The Germans are meticulous planners and sticklers for rules. But when something does not go according to plan, or the rules are either bent or not helpful as they stand, then they cannot cope. The Greeks, on the other hand, are notorious for not planning in advance and not abiding by rules. But when something goes wrong, or changes unexpectedly, they are spectacular at finding a solution on the spur of the moment. In fact this is partly why they have excelled at guerilla warfare in the past, both in the war of independence and under German occupation more recently.

Now coming back to our present woes. The Germans have concocted a great super Master plan for Europe. One, which for the moment has served them very well, if not the rest of Europe. Samaras has decided to play the good little boy and become teacher’s pet by doing everything the Germans demand, and expects to be “rewarded” for his pains. However the “reward” he expects means that Greek interests will be sacrificed to those of Germany, even more.

Stands to reason. Germany is out to secure her own interests, whereas Samaras has no intention of sticking up for Greek interests by dint of the policy he has chosen. So although great for Germany (in the short term at least) his policy is disastrous for Greece.

Now should he be more courageous and should he put Greece’s real long term interests ahead of Germany’s, he should follow a policy of upsetting Germany’s well designed apple cart. This would throw them off balance, thwart their Master plan for Europe and send them into disarray, unable to cope because things are not going according to their well laid plans.

Instead, Stournaras trotted obsequiously off to Schauble towards the end of August, after having exchanged personal mobile phone numbers with him (something that was presented as a great achievement), to get his approval or be told what to do rather. Why Schauble? Who is Schauble? Just another Finance Minister. He might just as well have gone to Moscovici or Guindos or even Maria Fekter!.

Schauble, after all, by his very role will provide for Germany’s interests not Greece’s. No matter how much servile sucking up Stournaras may do under the Samaras policy of fawning. Because that is of course his duty. It is neither the duty of Stournaras nor Samaras to provide for Germany’s interests in the vane hope that by being the good little boy they might get a bone thrown in their direction.

It is their duty to safe guard Greece’s interests. And that, though they fail to see the point, is the interests of the Greek people. Their well being, their access to healthcare and medicine, their ability to nourish themselves and be housed properly, to enjoy heating in the winter.

The Samaras government doesn’t see the need for any of that. Perhaps it is time they were made to. One way or another.

Reassurance

The hapless Mr Stournaras who for reasons only known unto himself, has undertaken the job of undertaker of the Greek economy has just reassured us. He has announced that we shall continue in recession for another two years and that by then our Economy will have contracted by a total of 25%.

And I am sure he did mean it as reassurance because he knows very well that the policy he is pushing to implement at the troika’s behest will ensure far greater recession and an eventual annihilation of the Greek economy within a few years, and not just a contraction of a mere 25%.

Nevertheless, one has to wonder why the government has decided to put on such a bad show of pretending to negotiate with the troika and why all of a sudden people like Reichenbach, head of the task force in Greece, and even The Frau herself, are lavishing praise on this new government, saying Greece has a achieved a great deal already. Even that Greece’s Budget monitoring is the best in Europe! (Better than Germany’s even? Come on Horst, pull the other one. It’s got bells on.) The climate has changed! In 100 days this new government has performed miracles! And other such hollow, mendacious praise.

These could be signs of a mild panic. Our inept and disgraceful new government spokesman, Simos Kedikoglou (a failed journalist) has now added insult to injury, by trotting out the old Pasok/ Papademos threats. This is our last chance! he says. We must pass these measures otherwise we stand to lose everything!

Does he not even realise that by passing these measures he is depriving the Greeks of everything anyway? No. He tells us that if we do pass the measures, El dorado is round the corner!

He omits the clarification that this El dorado Greece will become will be one exclusively for Foreign investors. Greeks will have been deprived of all rights, all benefits such as healthcare and welfare, and in short will have been reduced to the level of serfs.

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