Just about all analysts and commentators, except those close the Greek government, agree on one thing pertaining to this much touted Greek deal. That it is nothing but a load of rubbish. I will not reiterate my own comments on the reliability of the IMF or any other organizations forecasting precisely what Greek Debt and GDP will be eight years from now. However, it would appear that this opinion merely expresses a broad consensus throughout the world. That it is absolute rubbish. (Not withstanding the phoney precision of say 124% or perhaps 126.6%).
However, there is a much more glaring item in this travesty of a deal that is equally rubbish and that is in danger of shattering the deceit this “successful” deal is being gravely presented with.
And that is the buy back of Greek bonds in the Private sector. According to brilliant Wolfie’s sneaky underhand little plan, half of the phoney debt write down of 40 billion Euro is to derive from this buy back. Now, I don’t know if it has escaped their attention or not, but bonds held by what is called the Private Sector have already been slashed by 50% (or 70% depending on how you calculate it.)
The great European Fudge consists of the following: The so called Official Sector, which consists of European governments and the ECB, are not allowed to write down or off, any debt, because it would be against the rules. The IMF says that Greek debt will never be sustainable unless there is a hefty write down of such debt. Germany refuses to even discuss this.
Not because it is against the law or anything like that, but because the German government’s unique concern at the moment is how to get re elected, and everything, but everything in the world must take second place to Angela Merkel being reelected as Chancellor of Germany. There now.
Now whatever else I may have said about Christine Lagarde, the one thing I would not accuse her of is of being daft. She knows Greek debt can never become sustainable without such a deep haircut of Official Sector holdings. She also knows that the IMF cannot, also by law, continue to fund a country whose debt is not sustainable, as Greece’s is not. Not least because of the IMF stringent austerity imposed on it. But be that as it may.
However, she is also very well aware that in the face of German self serving bloody mindedness, if she pushes the issue to its logical conclusion and the IMF pulls out of Greece, then global financial mayhem may ensue. So she ostensibly bows to Wolfie’s wishes making him a very happy man. In her own tactical maneuver perhaps.
Now, as I just said, the bonds to be “bought back” are the already exchanged ones through the PSI. The grand idea is that the EFSF will lend Greece some 10 billion (an interest paying loan that will be part of growing debt) to buy back these bonds on the market. Now, underhand point number one, Greece is responsible for the buy back and Greece must put it into effect and Greece must pay interest on the loan, and be held to task should she fail in this enterprise. Failure being, presumably, an inability to reduce debt this way by 20 billion (taking the extra 10 billion loan into account).
And all this has to be completed by 13th December, otherwise the IMF cannot continue funding. Now, since those European blabbermouths have been going on and on about this for so long, demand for Greek bonds has grown since those who bought these at 10% or 20% of face value, will now be paid at 30% of face value (or thereabouts) but NOT MORE, even if they have gone further up in the secondary market.
Underhand point number two: A large part of these bonds are in the hands of Greek banks, Greek social security funds, Greek universities and hospitals. That is all these Unprivate Greek entities forced into the PSI and just about bankrupt by it. In fact, the whole point of this great big 34 billion installment is to go towards re capitalising the Greek banks who had their reserves decimated through the previous PSI.
So as Mr Stournaras shamelessly admitted in his press conference, even if in a round about way, he deems it the patriotic duty of these institutions to fall on their swords. In other words, if they do sell their already reduced bond holdings (already by 70%) at 30% of the reduced price, then they will go bankrupt. All health care in Greece will disappear and so will many other things. Now the banks, which is all that matters, are expected to survive since they are due to get 24billion for re capitalisation, only, after the second hair cut even this will not be enough.
However, there is a snag here. The new bonds were issued under British law, which means the Greek government cannot force the issue. Or if it does try to, it will be taken to court (in London: where the bondholders will win the case outright, thanks to how the Greek government mishandled the first PSI).
Nevertheless, it appears that Greek bonds are being bought in the secondary market for more that the 30% European imposed cap. What does this mean? Well, it means that those buying at the higher price feel that Germany has endorsed the Greek deal, that she would not be lending more money to Greece if she planned to boot Greece out and not support her after the elections, so they figure, this is a good deal because the price of Greek bonds will go up as the Greek economy begins to mend. Which is what these MoU programmes are supposed to achieve.
Apart from dry laughter about that last factor, there is some sense in the thought. If, as we are being told Greece is going to stay in the Eurozone because Germany says so, then eventually Greek bonds will go up. So those buying now, do not intend to sell them at a lower price. Catch 22. They will not sell because they are betting on a rise in their value, which means they are betting on the success, eventually, of the Greek bailout.
However, if they do not sell, this risks scuppering the very premise on which this so called deal is supposed to be based. The Greek government will be unable to buy back its bonds, and hence the Greek government will be blamed for not carrying out its part and the whole plan it took days and hours and months to put together will burst like another toxic bubble.
Now, should the bond sale manage after all to achieve the 20 billion target, what will that mean? OK, that the Greek government pulled it off, perhaps. But also that their is no faith in the bailout plan ever working, so best to cash in now before Greece defaults and is thrown out of the Euro.
So what does this mean? It means if Greece succeeds in this task imposed upon it of the buy back, it is only because The Markets have no faith in its future, or at least in its future in the Eurozone. If it fails to deliver on this Bailout programme demand, it means that The Markets do have faith in Greece’s future growth and prospects inside the Eurozone. But the very demonstration of this faith will be precisely what scotches the plan, because debt sustainability (even in the Alice in Wonderland terms of the IMF and EZ 124% in 2020 and other such arrant nonsense) will not be achieved.
Hence, the IMF will be constrained to pull out and everything will come crashing down again, like a house of cards.
I suppose it is only to be expected. When you manage decisions of such importance the way the Eurogroup does, it is inevitable that at 2 o’clock in the morning after10 hours or so of dithering and wrangling and jockeying for position, you will see something as idiotic as this as a really great idea! And good! Lets do it Now! So we can all get some well deserved sleep.
Bleary eyed and, I dare say from slightly to greatly enibreated after those good dinners, none of them can see straight any more.
As for the Greek PM’s appalling triumphalism over this great success… Well, apparently he too spent the whole time eating pizzas and I dare say having a beer or even whisky or two, as he waited for the outcome.
So should I really be considered unpatriotic for saying, THIS IS NO WAY TO RUN A COUNTRY!!!