Samaras is in seventh heaven! He got the tranche! Grexit is dead! (He thinks). But then the poor man never did seem to be all that bright.

In his euphoria he did not realise that of this installment, as the amount was agreed by the so called second memorandum, some 11 billion has already gone since it has been spent on buying up bonds (which was not in the original agreement). So at this juncture only 16 bill will go to recapitalising the banks and not the expected 24.

And that is not all. As Prof Varoufakis has pointed out, the Greek banks have been using their bonds to enhance liquidity. They deposit their bonds with the ECB and get 70% of face value. So another trickle of liquidity for the parched Greek economy has just been plugged up.

In the light of Stournaras’ and Samaras’ moronic joy and jubilation, and damning of the Cassandras and declaring the Grexit dead, the Guardian has this to report:

EU diplomats, based in Athens, however, have a more reserved outlook. One cautioned against Greece over-interpreting the decision as a ?vote of confidence in its efforts when it?s more about the EU not wanting Greece to go under.?

Foreign observers worry that, as had been the case before, Athens will see the disbursement as an excuse to relax implementation of long-overdue structural reforms.

The Samaras/Stournaras regime has no intention of implementing any real structural reforms such as the civil service, the stream lining of how it functions and so on. It has no intention of dealing with the taxation system. It’s sole intention is to keep its clientele in the public sector and make the country pay for it in blood through this new lethal tax law to be passed in exchange for the loan installment.

Now, rumour has it that the only reason Stournaras is hell bent on draining the Greek economy of a further 3 billion of money it no longer has, is so that it can keep paying for the public sector employees the troika had wanted it to get rid of. Well, why else has there been not a word from the troika concerning this matter any more? But only insistence on inflicting the vicious taxation on the Greek people, to the detriment of any hope of limiting the rate of recession.

The troika no longer seems all that concerned over Tax dodging in Greece either. There is no provision for revenue from catching tax dodgers in the budget. Oh, and the idea of getting paid for use of TV stations etc has completely disappeared too. Why is that? To keep the propaganda machine rolling in the memorandum’s favour, it would appear. Why else would the nasty troika shrug this one off so easily too?

So the whole sorry shambles is merely more avoiding the problem, not fixing it. The “EU does not want Greece to go under“. Yet. And that is all. The EU, well okay Germany, wants to fudge the issue (and she has successfully done so) till after the German elections when Merkel will have been safely reelected as Chancellor, through deceit and subterfuge.

If we get that far, Greece that is, and it just might, then we shall see whether the Grexit is really dead or not. Till then, the economy will be going from bad to worse, loan tranche or no loan tranche. The automatic adjustments, that is extra taxation levies and cuts to pensions, will set in as targets are not met. And they will not be met. Because they are designed to be impossible.

However, this is where Keynes’ “unpredictable” sets in. You cannot forecast the economy, or the markets (as he found out from personal experience) because the unpredictable of its nature is, by definition, unknown. And between now and the German elections anything could happen. And probably will.

As to predicting the Debt/GDP ration in 2020, and saying well yes, okay, it won’t be 120%, but 124% (such precision!), I have gone blue in the face saying why it is all nothing but arrant nonsense for many different reasons. And I am far from the only one!

Meanwhile the troika are quite happy to let the Samaras/Stournaras regime keep milking the Greek people for everything they have, each to satisfy their owned warped little agenda.

But in Greece we do know about goats. When you keep trying to milk a goat that has no milk left, all you achieve is to draw blood from its udder.

And that is where Stournaras is. He is preparing to draw blood from the Greeks.

I wonder how far he will manage?