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Month: July 2013 (page 2 of 2)

Famous Last Words

Having failed miserably as a “technocrat economist” so beloved of the Brussels/Berlin axis, Mr Yannis Stournaras has decided to add insult to injury and to turn into an equally bad politician. To this end he has taken to spouting nonsense declarations like: if we left the Eurozone we would turn into Syria!

Last night he had another shot at it. At about two o’clock in the morning after marathon… talks is it? Cringing is it? Fudge is it? Or just plain deceitful play acting over haggling with the troika representatives, Mr Stournaras struck again.

The events in Egypt, he said show what Greece would have been reduced to if she left the Eurozone as some have proposed (the ‘some’ sneered at pejoratively). This prompted various news commentators to say, it’s about time he started thinking before he spoke, other kinder ones to say things like, well he was tired, he was trying to steer the subject away from the godawful mess he has mad of the Greek economy.

One conclusion was that he rather likes being the big man in the government (which only goes to show how little they all are) and to turn himself into a politician now. Perhaps disingenuously thinking that he will actually gain votes from all those he has ruined. Who knows? Hardly the mark of a politician of any kind.

However, the punch line is, that things have calmed down in Egypt, her borrowing costs have gone down while Greece has yet again failed at carrying out any of the things these people agreed she would, is going straight down the tubes and the only reason German politicians are mouthing support and platitudes about a glimmer of hope in Greece and other such deceits, is because the only thing they are worried about is their own reelection.

I dare say after the German elections are over and the truth comes out, as it will,  Mr Stournaras may well start hoping desperately that things do turn out as in Egypt where Morsi was placed under arrest in the Ministry of Defence, rather than, say, thrown to the maddened crowd or something.

Just a thought the arrogant, overbearing, conceited, totally failed Minister of Finances might like to bear in mind.

More Distasteful Troika Fudge

Reauters reports this morning that a stern ultimatum has been given to Greece. You only have three days to get your act together. And do everything you agreed to (quite regardless that it was under duress and will only lead to the complete collapse of what is left of the economy), or else! No more money! That Mantra again. Okay.

But then the Commission jumps to the clicking of the Mistress’s fingers, or jackboots, or both. No! Goodness no! We deny the Reuteurs report! We have given no such deadline. We’re working together, sort of hinted that things will work out. Not to worry about Greece. Probably we’ll slice up this 8 billion or so tranche into several smaller slices and throw them at Greece, like you do at a dog, every time he gets the trick right.

So everything will be kept nice and quiet and out of the headlines till The Frau gets her elections safely behind her. Of course there is the IMF to think about. If everything is not ship shape by the end of July then it will pull out of the Greek programme. But if it does, this will make life extremely difficult for the northern states who will either be required to foot the bill themselves or pull out as well. And statements have already been made that they intend to do the latter.

Still, with Christine Lagarde, aka Marie Antoinette (also of Bernard Tapi fame) at the helm, she will no doubt manage to engineer her own fudge too and help out with The Frau’s ambitions. The way she did last time, plunging Greece into prolonged pain and misery.

Does any of this make any sense at all? Is any of it really worth it? For whom?

German Europe has turned into a looney bin where everyone is constrained in a tight strait jacket, pulled tighter every time the patient can’t jump through the hoop as The Frau desires. So either we break out of the straitjacket or we die a slow lingering death by suffocation.

What Will The IMF Do?

In accordance with its statute and prevailing rules, the IMF cannot extend loans if the debt of the country under a programme is not sustainable. It is quite obvious to everyone, except Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schauble, that Greek debt is not sustainable, that the programme is failing miserably, that the ultra stringent austerity imposed on this hapless country has acted like the proverbial sledge hammer, in that even the healthy parts of what used to be the Greek economy, have collapsed. There is no longer any hope for recovery for Greece under this inhuman regime.

Yet again the IMF is fudging. It magnanimously granted Greece until July (this month that is) to deal with the short fall of what is it, 4 billion or so, before it is constrained to cut off this senseless financing of an unsustainable debt. There is no way this can be done. Greece has already been pushed way beyond her limits. Even if a fudge is laid out on excel sheets, based on continuing to raise taxes on non existent incomes, in a few months at best, the short fall will have grown even more rather than shrunk. For obvious reasons, that any first year economics student will know.

To show how obvious this should be: the shortfall that has been discovered all of a sudden derives from the health service. Expenses have shot way over the budget and must be brought in line. But how? The simple reason why this occurred is that before the crisis most Middle Class patients did not use the public health services very much in that they used private health insurance, or footed the bill out of pocket for medication and certain tests that were not too costly.

Now however, since this catastrophically destructive (as opposed to creative destruction) sledgehammer austerity has just about annihilated the middle classes in Greece, more and more people are having to resort to public healthcare, because they can no longer afford anything else as they used to. As a result, a far greater burden on public healthcare arises. But in this vicious circle of German inspired logic, what does the troika demand? More taxation, more cuts to income, in other words it wants to exacerbate the causes that led to the shortfall in the first place, rather than help mend them in any way.

If there were any integrity in the IMF they would declare right now, that Greek debt is not sustainable and that they are therefore obliged to pull out. Several northern Eurozone countries have said that if this happens, they will reconsider whether to continue the financing programme. Which is in fact the only sensible thing to do. The only thing to be done now is to negotiate a write down of Greek debt in conjunction with an orderly exit of Greece from the Euro.

But will the IMF do what it knows it must? No. The IMF has chosen to play Politics rather than Economics, as evidenced by the most recent sham in the case of Greek debt sustainability when Greece was once again coerced to buy back its already haircut bonds, and the result was most deceitfully declared a success, not least by Christine Lagarde, the Marie Antoinette of the current historical tragedy being played out. It wasn’t a success, however. Greek debt in absolute numbers is greater than what it was at the beginning of the crisis, let alone as a percentage of GDP.

So the reason why the Greek people have been condemned to a cruel, slow and lingering death is to accommodate the personal ambitions of one woman. Angela Merkel. Which is the reason why both she and Schauble have raised the telescope to their blind eye so they cannot see the unsustainability of Greek debt and the complete disaster of their programme. It would harm their own personal re election prospects.

For some reason no one dares endanger Frau Merkel’s chances of getting re elected. To be fair, there is fear of what might happen to the Euro if Greece leaves the straight jacket of the single currency. So Greece and the Greek people are being sacrificed for the survival of the Euro. But instead of rewarding the hapless country for this sacrifice for the greater good of the rest of Europe (if that does happen), it is being punished with greater and growing cruelty.

Now, though the Greeks are done for, flat on their backs with no will to fight back, there are certain laws of history and nature that are only ignored at one’s peril. This is one such case, where this dastardly hubris at Greece’s expense will bring on a Nemesis commensurate in might with the viciousness of the hubris.

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