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Month: December 2012 (page 2 of 2)

The Elephant In The Room!

According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, France today is just as overpriced as Spain. Both countries must be around 20% cheaper to make their economies competitive and to achieve debt sustainability. But to be 20% cheaper, the real devaluation process won’t be easy.

This is why France must undergo a slump of a decade in which its inflation rate would be lagging by 2% behind the average of the remaining eurozone. In spite of all that, France has not come yet under a bailout program.

So said Hans-Werner Sinn, a German economist and president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.

France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece… in fact just about every non northern member of the Eurozone has lost its competitiveness over… the last ten years!

While Germany’s competitiveness has soared over this same period. Coincidence? German hard workers as against southern shirkers? They love that one, but…. no.

It is the Euro, stupid! To paraphrase Clinton. The Euro is the Elephant in the room no one wants to acknowledge. For various reasons. Germany since it has been not only a net beneficiary economically of this flawed currency, but because it has also acquired political clout and absolute hegemony in Europe.

By signing up to this extremely badly designed, totally premature common currency, the countries of the Eurozone found themselves back in the dark ages of the gold standard and all the woes that that entailed. Breaking out of the Gold Standard was what helped stagnating, recessionary economies break out of the trap. A trap the Eurozone countries now find themselves in.

The Gold Standard was just as sacred as the idea of the Euro is today. It was just as taboo if not more to suggest leaving the Gold Standard as it is today to mumble that maybe the Euro should be dismantled!

No! Never! No way! Heresy! All we have to do is ruin the economies of the south, of France, okay maybe even Belgium and the Netherlands later on and…? Well, there you are.

In the end the Gold Standard was abolished.

In the end the Euro as it is now will become a bad chapter of history.

But instead of shilly shallying and ignoring the root problem of Europe while ruining everything Europe ever stood for, spreading pain and destitution, might it not be more sensible for the powers that be to start working out a sensible way to acknowledge the elephant in the room and devise a way to get it out quietly?

How about that Olli Rehn, and HVR? Rather than chortling Thatcher’s greatest clanger of “There Is No Alternative” (which isn’t even original for you) and insisting that the ONLY way to solve Europe’s problems (and perpetuate their parasitical jobs) is by inflicting more and more pain through austerity which will only lead to complete and total collapse! And not only of the Economy.

And if you can’t think that far ahead because it is too strenuous for you all, you can always resign and hand over to more capable people. Who will no longer be restricted by taboos.

How The Frau Has Stabilized Europe And Set It On A Path Of Growth And Prosperity

Well obviously this is a joke. Even those totally ignorant of Economics (such as the assorted Ministers of Finances of the Eurozone) know that The Frau’s insistence on what in her warped little mind she considers economic policy, has led to recession, growing unemployment and political instability.

But the reaction to Silvio Berlusconi’s announcement that he will stop supporting the Monti regime, provoking an early election in which he will run is enlightening to say the least.

Monti was appointed through The Frau mechanism of putting technocrats in charge. Technocrats loyal to the ECB say (Papademos in Greece) or Goldman Sachs alumni, all of whom consider their duty is to The Frau’s policy and not the countries they have been appointed to govern.

Now Mario Monti, a far more intelligent and likable technocrat than the Greek versions of Papademos and Stournaras, has done everything right. That is he has followed the orders imposed. To his credit he has tried to influence this debilitating dictatorship of What The Frau Wants. As for instance his heroic attempt in the Euro summit where he thought he had passed the agreement that bank recapitalization would not be lumped on sovereign debt, but would be directly between the banks and the EFSF.

But even this very sensible idea was scotched in practice by The Frau. Taking the wind completely out of Monti’s sails.

And we come to the outright panic throughout the world provoked by Silvio Berlusconi. By all accounts a buffoon, a criminal, a scandal monger, a figure of fun that the Italians were glad to see the back of. Yet now, just over a year later, there is panic in the markets because of the fear that, Oh my god! What happens if Monti goes?

First of all their fear is not “if” Monti goes, but “when” he goes. Second, this fear has been triggered by the outcome of Monti’s imposition of The Frau inspired austerity with no growth prospects policy. A policy designed to destroy economies and throw people to the wolves for the short term benefit of the German economy.

So taking into account what The Frau has achieved in Europe over the last two and half to three years, that is recession, unemployment, destitution, destruction of at least one generation, excessive taxation from dwindling incomes and all that, it is hardly surprising that The Markets have been thrown into a panic.

In their own language they have “discounted” the result. That Signor Monti’s policy will lead to an election result they do not want. Because the Italian electorate does not want The Frau imposed policy of the destruction of their country and by extension Europe.

So the complete buffoon, Mr Bunga Bunga has called The Frau’s bluff and shouted, “Hey guys, the Empress has no clothes!”

Why else such a panic? Had the EZ behaved with greater sense deciding upon and adopting an effective economic policy concerned with the people’s of Europe and nit just the bankers, Berlusconi would not have dared pull such a stunt, or if he had, everyone would have shrugged it off and smiled condescendingly at the buffoon, knowing that nothing would happen.

The fact that they have not speaks volumes.

Billions Upon Billions Thrown Down The Frau’s Plughole

The Financial Times Deutschland has been obliged to close. Thomas Fricke has written an extremely interesting article over why, entitled:

How Angela Merkel saw off the Financial Times Deutschland

The German chancellor’s failure to implement our financial advice led to the economic crisis that closed our newspaper

(click here to read it)

This article tells us in plain clear language and plain clear sensible logic, not only why the FTD was obliged to close, but also why the Eurozone has been driven to the brink of failure and perhaps even total collapse.

All along, The Frau, in her stubborn little know all, arrogant manner, has insisted on policies that were bound to fail, and did. On policies that were bound to lead to economic collapse and recession and did. She has consistently preferred to throw billions upon billions of other people’s money down her plughole, in order to stick by her rules, punish, prove she is boss or whatever else, rather than deal with problems rationally and with a modicum of economic sense.

I say “other people’s money” advisedly in that although Germany has supposedly contributed the lion’s share to all these criminally inspired “bailouts”, through the admission of her own Minister and MPs, Germany has made more money out of the crisis than she has put in to supposedly trying to fix it.

It is only now that German industry is beginning to feel the pinch, as it was obvious to anyone with a modicum of common sense, let alone knowledge of basic economics, that it would, that we can hope someone will wake up and shout from the rafters:

The Empress Is Not Wearing Any Clothes!

Save The Economy! Kill The People!

When the appointed technocrat Minister of Finances Yannis Stournaras went to see the President of the Hellenic Republic to update him on government policy, the President felt the need to remind him that there did happen to be people in this country too, not just numbers. He did not put it that way of course, being a diplomatic man, but he did call the Minister’s attention to the fact that you can’t roar ahead with cuts and exorbitant taxation in total disregard of the suffering you are inflicting on the people.

It is very unlikely that Mr Sournaras took any heed. As he told us himself in what is becoming a notorious interview on TV a couple of nights ago, he was only upset when Herr Schauble told him off for divulging that the Greek extension had been granted before, he, Shauble, had given permission to him to do so. He disobeyed the Master and was taken to task for it. And this really did make him unhappy.

He also told us that one of his best moments was when Scahuble patted him on the back and told him what a good boy he was because he had carried out all the demands that were pending.

Again the honourable Minister appears to have remained anaware that this praise from Scahuble he so delighted in was won at the cost of inflicting the worse punishment yet on the Greek people. And that is saying a lot. What with about a third of the population under the poverty line, 26% officially unemployed, further recession after 25% of GDP has already been eroded. And much more, like hunger, destitution and an insistence on even more taxation on people who simply cannot pay anything any more.

The only thing that matters to Mr Stournaras and Antonis Samaras is how to keep The Frau and her side kick happy, and hang the people. The plebs. The great unwashed and all that. Their suffering does not touch Mr Stournaras at all. He is only upset when Mr Schauble reprimands him for not inflicting more pain on the Greek people.

It is interesting that there has been a growing amount of articles and comments appearing in the foreign press concerning the plight of the Greek people, from Bloomberg, to the New York Times, the Guardian and others. And there have been reminders that there is not much use in “saving” the country (which is the pretext for this destruction being wreaked on the Greek people and the Greek economy) when you have sacrificed the people instead of saving them.

But Mr Stournaras is a model technocrat. Dedicated to his mission. Determined to keep Mr Schauble happy at all costs. When asked how he will meet the targets he has so callously agreed to when people can no longer pay the extra billions in tax he is demanding, he answered, they will have too.

So quite obviously, he wants to save the economy but not the people. Nevertheless, although it is perfectly understandable that a dedicated technocrat like himself remains totally oblivious of people and their suffering, it is rather surprising that in terms of his own remit he cannot (or will not?) see that the very recipe he is desperately trying to impose will only lead to the complete collapse of the Greek economy. How else could it be with the “killer medicine”* Greece is being force fed?

 

*A journalist at the ECB press conference held today used that exact phrase for what is happening to Greece. The “killer medicine”. As expected Draghi’s answer was a mumbled fudge about imbalances, about Greece still having a deficit and such. As you would expect from yet another ex Goldman Sachs technocrat.

Corruption

Well, it comes as no surprise that Greece has topped the table for corruption in Europe. However, what seems to me more pertinent is that corruption in Greece has increased during the troika/memorandum regime. And not only that, but the other countries entrapped in the so called bail out/austerity tyranny, have also seen corruption grow significantly.

So what have all these IMF/European strict austerity-cures-everything programmes actually achieved after about three years?

Well now, unemployment has increased is increasing (and ought to be diminished)* throughout the EU and in particular the states being ground to a pulp through this ingenious economic “policy”, Spain and Greece, whose unemployment is near one in four, and growing (one in two for the young.)

Recession in the EU has increased, is increasing (and ought to be diminished) and has in fact reached Depression dimensions in Greece in particular.

Debt? The debt problem has not only not gone away but is also growing.

Poverty has increased, is increasing (and ought to be diminished) throughout Europe (yes, even Germany).

And now the cherry on top of the cake. Corruption is seeping throughout the austerity ravaged states. It should come as no surprise. When the official state is milking you for more that you are worth (as is happening in Greece in particular, but not only), and your children are going hungry (as is happening in Greece but elsewhere too), then you will steal, cheat and yes, indeed, succumb to bribery, corruption and everything else too.

Congratulations German Europe, congratulations IMF, congratulations to all you spineless, self serving totally self interested Eurocrats and technocrats, having a right old time on your respective power trips. From Olli Rehn to Yannis Stournaras and everybody else preening themselves so shamelessly in the Eurogroup.

 

*The quote is taken from John Dunning, 1st Baron Ashburton (18 October 1731 ? 18 August 1783), who stated in Parliament that “the influence of the crown has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished“.

 

No Taxation Without Representation!

The coalition pretending to govern Greece have come up with a proposed new taxation law that is from despicable to disastrous! It penalizes (not to say devastates) all middle income downwards. It deters any kind of serious investment, it is the death knell for all young people trying to get up and on their feet.

In short if its is passed it will lead to the complete collapse of the Greek economy and probably even the contraction of the Greek population since children are penalized to a prohibitive extent. Now, since the public is being fed leaks of this brilliant scheme, public opinion is beginning to scream blue murder.

As a result, the cringing leaders of the three parties in coalition are all saying that no, they do not agree with this proposed law and no we must not annihilate Greek families and so on. Prompting the question that if all three of you are against it, why propose it?

To which comes the answer off pat “Oh, it’s the troika!” The hapless (and clueless?) Minister of Finances is only carrying out the Troika’s orders. The troika has decreed that an extra 3 billion (or so) must be raised in taxes from an economy contracting at an average rate of 5% a year and set to continue to do so.

Now, although this could be just the Greek so called government’s way of wriggling out of the blame, and the troika did not actually decree this, the truth is that at best, they have just sat back, twiddled their thumbs and shrugged in agreement. Which is just as bad. And equally irresponsible.

But what are we in fact being told? No matter how you vote you second rate and second class Greeks, you do not have a government and we shall decide how to tax you! Reminiscent of anything? The American colonies perhaps? Because that is just what it is beginning to feel like!

Boston showed us the way forward! Lets have a tea party….

The Road To Hell

I have said it before and I will say it again, but I am far from the only one saying it. So we can’t all be daft or devious. At the moment two of those sharing my opinion are Alexis Tsipras leader of the left wing SYRIZA party, currently coming first in the opinion polls, and the other, Stuart Thomson, manager of the Ignis Strategic Bond fund, quoted as saying about the current bond buy back scheme “This is just another milepost on Greece’s road to Hell, which is of course, paved with good intentions“.

Now these two gentlemen are literally poles apart in their politics and economics, but in full agreement about one fact. The way Greece is being raped and abused, not least by its own so called governments and technocrats, apart from all the self serving, callous Eurocrats and other Eurozone  country leaders (the ones who order the others about that is.) who are pushing the hapless god forsaken country straight to hell.

The latest part of this horrific road Greece is being willfully pushed down is of course the ridiculously conceived, totally unplanned and woefully executed bond buy back. It is a fudge. A very bad fudge which will leave the Greek economy in an even worse state than before. It is a subterfuge. All the powers that be from Juncker to Merkel to Samaras and now the Governor of the Bank of Greece are using it to lie preposterously to the Greek people.

Don’t worry! They keep telling us. The worst is over! All this will bring about growth some time around the end of next year. Everything will go fine! Provided…!

That’s it. Provided you stick with this fabulous plan, based on forecasts  and targets that are never ever even remotely right, that have created a vicious death spiral in recession, more austerity more recession, which does not provide one single miserable little cent for growth of any kind, with a brand new taxation law that is designed to turn Greece into a complete and utter waste land. And more.

Yet all the powers that be are upbeat about it. Even though they all know very well that it is one more nail in the coffin of Greece, one more leap down the road taking us straight to hell. And they are all so pleased with themselves for having solved the problem. Well, at least they are honest when they think they have solved the problem.

That is they think they have collectively solved their own problem, which in a nutshell is the same for all of them. How to cling onto power and keep enjoying their unearned and ill deserved salaries and perks at the expense of the poor, the impoverished, the broken people of Europe, starting with Greece.

They have done an extraordinarily good job of destroying Greece under the pretext of trying to help her, but I doubt whether any of this will be good either for them or the rest of Europe not in the long run, nor even the medium run, but in the very short run.

Something is going to blow. And soon.

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