Parina

Literature, economics and more...

Month: November 2012 (page 1 of 3)

Just What Is The Economy For?

Well now, whatever else might have been in the minds of the great economists from Adam Smith (yes), John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx and many others, today’s great (warped) free market neo liberal thinkers certainly do not have anything like “achieving the good life”  in mind at all.

No! The economy is like a machine. Like the combustion engine say and equally impersonal. It is there for one reason alone. To ensure profits by eliminating the human factor entirely. There is no human factor, there are merely labour costs which have to be reduced. And the ultimate goal of the economy is to keep banksters happy and hang everybody else.

Actually to be quite fair, this current brand of financial capitilasm (personified by the banksters)  really doesn’t give much of hoot for industrialists either. Ok. They are useful, they suppose, but only to the extent that they throw their profits into the hedge fund, derivatives, CDS, what have you markets.

Society does not exists as Lady Thatcher told us years ago. No such thing as society, was what she said. Remember that? People are expendable. Welfare is a waste of time and money. Retirement age should be extended to the limit of age expectancy and people should be hired and fired at will with no rights, no so called “safety nets” no recourse to any kind of justice. They are nothing but expendable cogs in the machine. Spare parts to be replaced and thrown out.

In fact human beings are a bit of a nuisance and should be treated as such.

Which is precisely why we get what Paul Krugman calls Very Serious People saying very serious things like the following:

“Over to Spain, and Moody’s has said the recent moratorium on evictions weakens the financial position of the country’s banks. The agency said:

[The law passed this month] will reduce the level of recoveries expected through November 2014 and increase the time delay before the creditor can materialise recoveries following the sale of the repossessed property.”

And that is terrible! Throw the bums out into the street! Or preferably, let them jump out of their fourth storey windows and be done with it! We can’t bother with all these losers slowing up the banks’ recovery, now can we?

A while ago I saw a documentary on TV about The Great Depression (you know, the 1930’s thing that the current economic class seems to be ignorant of. Or rather what they prefer to deny, like the Holocaust Denial. Oh no, they say, that kind of stuff simply did not happen.)

Now here there were, throngs of people living on the streets because they had been evicted. Throngs of people going hungry and losing all feeling of being human (Remember the film “They Shoot Horses Don’t They?). While at the same time there were rows and rows of empty houses. No longer worth anything to anyone. And the farmers were having to throw away their produce because no one could buy it.

People were homeless and starving while buildings were empty and farm produce was rotting in the fields.

Well, I suppose that is the invisible hand of Capitalism.

No wonder the banksters have joined the Holocaust deniers.

The Band On The Titanic

I know the Titanic metaphor is getting to be rather tiresome, but the more we sink deeper and deeper (excuse the pun!) into the mess of the collapse of the financial capitalist bubble, the more apt this metaphor becomes.

Eurozone economic confidence (which is an abstract) is up! Even though European production (which is a tangible) is down and set to fall another 1% (by official forecasts which are notoriously over optimistic).

The Greek Prime Minister has totally lost his head. (Not that he ever had much of that in the first place but still). He went to the hubristic lengths of making a video of himself as the great thinker and the great helmsman who has now achieved all the preconditions for growth and prosperity in Greece.

Since this was again all rather too abstract, and in any case based on no facts whatsoever (actually counter to facts), the Minister of Finances felt he must chip in I suppose, and when pressed to answer where growth would come from, he said consumption. And he didn’t even blush! (He may have thrown up with all the nonsense he spouted, after the interview, but perhaps I am being too charitable.)

So the Greek Prime Minister and government are recklessly rejoicing and promising a new beginning for Greece with growth and jobs (and perhaps piles of rice in the sky and fifteen virgins for each man) just when they have enacted the worse, most severe austerity measures ever to have been passed in a democracy in peacetime. All income is to be severely cut and what income cannot be cut will be so severely and unjustly taxed that people will not only be unable to consume anything other than basic necessities to keep alive, but not even those.

Recession is forecast by the government in its budget to be a further 4.5%. Which means it will more likely be in the range of a further 7% to 8%. Does one need to say any more about the actual state of an economy not only in free fall but set for total melt down in 2013 to realise that the Greek government is not only totally out of touch but completely reprehensible in all its statements and even worse, jubilation?

It is, after all, one thing to be taking dreadful, debilitating measures in the genuine belief that you have to do this in order to get the economy back on track (even if you are totally wrong about your policy) and quite another to think you have really achieved success and worse to actually believe that the people think you are so wonderful, that you have the audacity to make and show a video of yourself as hero of the day! Illusions of grandeur? Narcissism? Abysmal advisors? Or just the band playing on with gusto as the ship sinks?

And back to the Euroland scene. Commissioner Olli Rhen, Eurogroup leader Jean Claude Juncker, EU President HVR and the Portuguese gentleman who is responsible for ruing his country and was therefore rewarded by being made president of the Commission, have all come out with statement of how great this is, how Greece is doing extremely well and other such self serving nonsense. (Why self serving? Well, for these guys it means if everything is going well you don’t have to do anything, do you?)

Now, a small digression, everything was supposed to hang on the troika’s report, because none of these European dignitaries had any idea what the situation in Greece was like, so they needed to wait for the report before making any decisions. Now they are all convinced that with this criminal tinkering they have all agreed to, Greek debt will be sustainable in 2020, and that everything is going swimmingly in that god forsaken, devastated country. Oh, but what happened to the troika report then? Oh, um, well… I don’t suppose we do need it after all. Anyway they will only report what we want them to. This is called integrity in Europe.

Now on the Titanic the band was told to keep playing so the passengers wouldn’t get upset. It was important for the company because it had set out to break the record of how long it takes to sail to New York. It would spoil the spin (as we call it now) if the passengers realised what was really going on, and, god forbid! Panicked!

In other words, those in charge were just like those in charge of Europe. They were in a state of complete and utter denial. The ship was going down and all they could think about was business. How will it look if the passengers panic? It won’t be good advertising for our company now will it? Yet no one stopped to think how it would look if most of the passengers actually drowned owing to criminal negligence.

That is what is happening in Euroland now. We mustn’t let on that the ship is actually sinking because how will it look to our electorates? For the so called surplus countries of the north, the only thing that matters is that the electorates must be reassured that no taxpayer money will be lost, through any write downs of debt for lazy profligates (which is what they have been made to believe).

Totally covering up two facts. That so far they have made good money from the bailouts and second, (and this is of Titanic proportions) that after the delight in squeezing the wretched PIGS till their pips squeak and refusing to write off enough debt to rebalance their economies, then these profligate southern states will in fact blow up. On a grand scale. Because There Is No Alternative, or at least you have decided to block all and any other viable alternatives out of self serving short sighted greed.

So while the band is playing and the first class passengers are enjoying their champagne and truffles, people in steerage are already drowning. And though that may be of no concern to the first class passengers, they are on the same boat. When it goes down, so will they, and how.

If the debt problem continues to be addressed in this short sighted, criminally negligent way then there is only one thing left that can happen.

The over indebted states of the south will be obliged to default in the most disorderly manner. When that happens, then the first class passengers will realise that they too were sitting on the top of the ice berg that sank them whole. Lock stock and barrel. Because when the south defaults, the smug northerners will be rudely awaked to the fact that, oh dear, we were rich on their loans. And our banks have just imploded!

But then it will be too late. Just as it was for the Titanic. Play on my gracious minstrels, play on. It is merely a matter of time now.

The Crux Of The So Called Greek Deal

Just about all analysts and commentators, except those close the Greek government, agree on one thing pertaining to this much touted Greek deal. That it is nothing but a load of rubbish. I will not reiterate my own comments on the reliability of the IMF or any other organizations forecasting precisely what Greek Debt and GDP will be eight years from now. However, it would appear that this opinion merely expresses a broad consensus throughout the world. That it is absolute rubbish. (Not withstanding the phoney precision of say 124% or perhaps 126.6%).

However, there is a much more glaring item in this travesty of a deal that is equally rubbish and that is in danger of shattering the deceit this “successful” deal is being gravely presented with.

And that is the buy back of Greek bonds in the Private sector. According to brilliant Wolfie’s sneaky underhand little plan, half of the phoney debt write down of 40 billion Euro is to derive from this buy back. Now, I don’t know if it has escaped their attention or not, but bonds held by what is called the Private Sector have already been slashed by 50% (or 70% depending on how you calculate it.)

The great European Fudge consists of the following: The so called Official Sector, which consists of European governments and the ECB, are not allowed to write down or off, any debt, because it would be against the rules. The IMF says that Greek debt will never be sustainable unless there is a hefty write down of such debt. Germany refuses to even discuss this.

Not because it is against the law or anything like that, but because the German government’s unique concern at the moment is how to get re elected, and everything, but everything in the world must take second place to Angela Merkel being reelected as Chancellor of Germany. There now.

Now whatever else I may have said about Christine Lagarde, the one thing I would not accuse her of is of being daft. She knows Greek debt can never become sustainable without such a deep haircut of Official Sector holdings. She also knows that the IMF cannot, also by law, continue to fund a country whose debt is not sustainable, as Greece’s is not. Not least because of the IMF stringent austerity imposed on it. But be that as it may.

However, she is also very well aware that in the face of German self serving bloody mindedness, if she pushes the issue to its logical conclusion and the IMF pulls out of Greece, then global financial mayhem may ensue. So she ostensibly bows to Wolfie’s wishes making him a very happy man. In her own tactical maneuver perhaps.

Now, as I just said, the bonds to be “bought back” are the already exchanged ones through the PSI. The grand idea is that the EFSF will lend Greece some 10 billion (an interest paying loan that will be part of growing debt) to buy back these bonds on the market. Now, underhand point number one, Greece is responsible for the buy back and Greece must put it into effect and Greece must pay interest on the loan, and be held to task should she fail in this enterprise. Failure being, presumably, an inability to reduce debt this way by 20 billion (taking the extra 10 billion loan into account).

And all this has to be completed by 13th December, otherwise the IMF cannot continue funding. Now, since those European blabbermouths have been going on and on about this for so long, demand for Greek bonds has grown since those who bought these at 10% or 20% of face value, will now be paid at 30% of face value (or thereabouts) but NOT MORE, even if they have gone further up in the secondary market.

Underhand point number two: A large part of these bonds are in the hands of Greek banks, Greek social security funds, Greek universities and hospitals. That is all these Unprivate Greek entities forced into the PSI and just about bankrupt by it. In fact, the whole point of this great big 34 billion installment is to go towards re capitalising the Greek banks who had their reserves decimated through the previous PSI.

So as Mr Stournaras shamelessly admitted in his press conference, even if in a round about way, he deems it the patriotic duty of these institutions to fall on their swords. In other words, if they do sell their already reduced bond holdings (already by 70%) at 30% of the reduced price, then they will go bankrupt. All health care in Greece will disappear and so will many other things. Now the banks, which is all that matters, are expected to survive since they are due to get 24billion for re capitalisation, only, after the second hair cut even this will not be enough.

However, there is a snag here. The new bonds were issued under British law, which means the Greek government cannot force the issue. Or if it does try to, it will be taken to court (in London: where the bondholders will win the case outright, thanks to how the Greek government mishandled the first PSI).

Nevertheless, it appears that Greek bonds are being bought in the secondary market for more that the 30% European imposed cap. What does this mean? Well, it means that those buying at the higher price feel that Germany has endorsed the Greek deal, that she would not be lending more money to Greece if she planned to boot Greece out and not support her after the elections, so they figure, this is a good deal because the price of Greek bonds will go up as the Greek economy begins to mend. Which is what these MoU programmes are supposed to achieve.

Apart from dry laughter about that last factor, there is some sense in the thought. If, as we are being told Greece is going to stay in the Eurozone because Germany says so, then eventually Greek bonds will go up. So those buying now, do not intend to sell them at a lower price. Catch 22. They will not sell because they are betting on a rise in their value, which means they are betting on the success, eventually, of the Greek bailout.

However, if they do not sell, this risks scuppering the very premise on which this so called deal is supposed to be based. The Greek government will be unable to buy back its bonds, and hence the Greek government will be blamed for not carrying out its part and the whole plan it took days and hours and months to put together will burst like another toxic bubble.

Now, should the bond sale manage after all to achieve the 20 billion target, what will that mean? OK, that the Greek government pulled it off, perhaps. But also that their is no faith in the bailout plan ever working, so best to cash in now before  Greece defaults and is thrown out of the Euro.

So what does this mean? It means if Greece succeeds in this task imposed upon it of the buy back, it is only because The Markets have no faith in its future, or at least in its future in the Eurozone. If it fails to deliver on this Bailout programme demand, it means that The Markets do have faith in Greece’s future growth and prospects inside the Eurozone. But the very demonstration of this faith will be precisely what scotches the plan, because debt sustainability (even in the Alice in Wonderland terms of the IMF and EZ 124% in 2020 and other such arrant nonsense) will not be achieved.

Hence, the IMF will be constrained to pull out and everything will come crashing down again, like a house of cards.

I suppose it is only to be expected. When you manage decisions of such importance the way the Eurogroup does, it is inevitable that at 2 o’clock in the morning after10 hours or so of dithering and wrangling and jockeying for position, you will see something as idiotic as this as a really great idea! And good! Lets do it Now! So we can all get some well deserved sleep.

Bleary eyed and, I dare say from slightly to greatly enibreated after those good dinners, none of them can see straight any more.

As for the Greek PM’s appalling triumphalism over this great success… Well, apparently he too spent the whole time eating pizzas and I dare say having a beer or even whisky or two, as he waited for the outcome.

So should I really be considered unpatriotic for saying, THIS IS NO WAY TO RUN A COUNTRY!!!

Neither A Quick Fix Nor A Real Fix

Unfortunately the German Juggernaut has prevailed once again. All the pantomime of long hours of discussions has ended up with what Germany wants. Quite simply put, to kick that wretched proverbial can down the road till the German elections. And Christine Lagarde has remained smothered behind her Hermes Scarves pretending to be calling for a Real Fix, and coming up with… yet another Nonsense Economics raspberry.

And hey ho we are back again to what Prof. Loukas Tsoukalis has described as theological discussions. Once again, for all these wise men and women of the IMF and the Eurozone to have finally settled after long hours of bickering that they will, through their agreements, achieve a debt/GDP ratios of 124% by 2020, it means they know, or can safely calculate what Greek GDP will be in 2020.

Which of course is arrant nonsense, or metaphysics perhaps. Think of how all their forecasts seem to be revised every quarter, and yet, they are confident enough to predict Greek GDP by 2020, and base their ‘fix’ on that! This is no longer idiocy. It is criminal. Because we are back to square one. If you want us to keep giving you more loans that will increase your debt pile, to be used solely to repay prior loans but NOT definitely NOT to be used for the economy, you must carry out the memorandum to a tee!

Now they may look pretty dumb, from the formidable Maria Fekter who changes her opinion like some people change their shirts, to the weasely, vengeful Schauble, even our friend the Walrus looking Juncker, not to mention Olli Rhen, who should have been fired from his job long ago, for complete and utter incompetence, but every single one of that criminal gang knows very well that the programme imposed on Greece will only lead to one thing.

Complete and utter destruction of the Greek economy at best, revolution, civil war and a fascist state at worst.

So why are they doing this? There is no way they are protecting their investment this way. So why? The dithering, the fumbling, the nonsense spewed out as supposed calculations. Not to mention the fact that there is no reason at all why 120% or 124% should be considered a “sustainable” debt figure. Because it isn’t.

A dark plan? An evil conspiracy? A sadistic streak?

No. Not even any of the above. (Except perhaps the sadistic streak). These people have been caught up in the mayhem of a collapsing financial capitalist disaster. Their only priority is to keep the banks in the manner to which they have become accustomed. Because the Banks are their sponsors, both of the political parties as of the so called politicians.

So, since the only thing that matters is for Angela Merkel and Wofgang Schauble to remain in power to serve this regime, at any cost, this aberration of not even a quick fix was agreed upon. The German boot remains firmly on the Greek wind pipe. Greece will be kept, (it is hoped) in this comatose state till the German Elections are safely over and The Frau is still at the helm of her perennially destructive juggernaut.

So. Mission accomplished! The idiotic Greek government are worse than whores or drug addicts. Give ’em their fix (even if it is no fix at all!) and they will sell their own mothers. Which is, in effect, precisely what they are doing. And quite happily.

However, Antonis Samaras’ delight in his illusion that he has achieved anything at all other than the acceleration of his country’s complete collapse into penury and violence eventually, will, I believe, be very short lived.

Waiting For Godot… Again!

And probably not even for the last time! At the time of writing the Eurogroup has reconvened after an inconclusive week to decide on the Greek question. It has apparently taken a break for…  calculations? Are these people serious? Rhetorical question that one I suppose.

But after the collapse of talks on the budget and all this coming and going and reconvening over the Greek question, with Ministers and Prime Ministers coming and going and coming back to Brussels for talks… or rather for the apparently excellent wines served, one can not help wondering why? Why on earth?

In another age, in another world, summits were really only held after all the work, or damn near all of it, had already been done. Details, calculations, fall positions and so on had been wrangled over and settled by those wonderful faceless aids no one ever met or ever knew much about.

So one cannot help but ask. Have they really not done all the calculations prior to the meeting? Have they really not done all the background work for the alternatives on offer? If not, why not? If they have, then what is all this show in aid of? Are they trying to convince us they are worth their exorbitant salaries or something? If so, they are hardly succeeding because all this smacks of gross inefficiency, and not competence in any way whatsoever!

And totally absurd. Of course matters may be complex and difficult and everyone is trying to do the dirty on the others while getting away with murder themselves, but that is nothing new. All negotiations are like that in one way or another. But this arrant display of dithering around, with no idea of what they want to achieve (other than the German maxim of Heads I Win, Tails You Lose) still less of how to do so, is not only pathetic, but criminally negligent!

And to the point. Christine Lagarde is on record as stating that what we want for the Greek question is not a quick fix but a real fix. Germany of course wishes to achieve the opposite of a quick fix which will be no fix at all, just to get her through to the elections The Frau and Wolfie are hell bent on winning.

So it remains to be seen whether the real fix will prevail despite the interests, not of Germany, but of The Frau exclusively and personally. And if we are presented with a real fix, whether it will indeed be a real fix or some kind of compromise sham that will only get us through the next few months. (If that.)

In any case, the Greek Prime Minister, who so far has confined all his input into vigorously nodding his empty head as soon as The Frau says anything at all, seems to have panicked, and : “… to ratchet up the pressure on the eurogroup, Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras has reportedly said the country’s government may collapse if it does not get a decision on the ?31.5bn loan tranche today.“*

One can’t help wondering why he feels this is a persuasive argument. I don’t think anyone at all will care if his so called government collapses, other than the actual members of this so called government who will lose their jobs. But no one else. Certainly not the Greek people, who already know they have not had a government for the last three years at least, and certainly not the Eurogoup and the IMF, since if they cannot decide on whether to hand over the 31.5 bn loan installment, chances are they were only looking for some kind of way not to do so.

After all, everybody knows Greek debt is completely unsustainable. Everybody knows the so called troika programme that has been imposed on Greece is nothing other than a one way street to complete collapse of the economy. So really, quite frankly and in all honesty, why on earth would anyone want to lend even more money to an over indebted country that will default one way or another in the very near future?

They can’t be that daft can they? Well no. They’re just playing the narrow self interest game and to hell with anyone or anything that gets in their way. Greece, that is, at this juncture.

So if the Samaras government does collapse, at least they will have done us some kind of a service!

What can you say?… Other than “Everybody knows the deal is rotten”

And all the lyrics to this song are apt. “Everybody knows the Captain lied.”

*From The Guardian Eurocrisis live blog.

European Union. What Union?

The more we see the EU “in action”, the more we despair of there even being a “European Union” left, if ever there really was one. The European Coal and Steel Union which evolved into the EEC of the six and then went on to grow into an ever larger EU was always a project from above. Nevertheless, in its object of bringing peace to the “Dark Continent”* of Europe it appears to have been successful.

I say “appears” because although it is true that Europe, or what was then still known as Western Europe, did indeed enjoy unprecedented peace and prosperity, till the wars of Yugoslav succession and then the bursting of the  finance capitalist bubble, there were many more factors in place that ensured this peace. Not least of which was the institution of NATO and the Cold War.

The Cold War as a factor of peace? Indeed. Since this signaled the dwarfing of the once mighty, ex Imperial Powers of Europe that had ruled the world for Centuries, and the rise of American hegemony, and, most important perhaps, the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods accords.

So rather than preening itself on its great success and basking in the otherwise ironic award of the Nobel Prize for Peace, Europe should perhaps start pondering its failures and its mistakes. And basic lack of vision or genuine popular support at any time.

The European project, even at its most popular was never something the peoples of Europe related to much and in any case it was never perceived as their project. It was an institution that supposedly facilitated trade, that gave subsidies to farmers at best, and ruined one’s eating habits through prohibiting traditional English pork sausages on the one hand and the Greek intestine and liver delicacy cockoretsi on the other.

But it was never something citizens of the European member states ever really identified with. Something they would fight and die for. In other words, it never won the hearts and minds of the people. No one ever honestly felt him or herself to be a citizen of Europe, rather than a citizen of France, Italy, Germany and so on.

And this is becoming more and more evident through the Eurogroups and summits. And is, I expect, what will lead, or rather is leading, to the unraveling of the European Union. In fact just as the Marshall Plan from the US led to the creation of peace and prosperity in Europe, so the bursting of the global financial bubble has led to the unmasking of what really underlies our so called European Union.

As we can see from the current wrangling over the budget in the summit being held, there is no European “Union”. Instead, there is a bunch of different nation states, with different interests, with no interest in propping up some kind of Union any more. Each leader is playing to his own audience. The wealthier countries, having been forced by The Frau’s imposition of austerity through her idiotic “golden rule”,  wish to reduce their contribution. Understandably. The poorer countries are desperate for more subsidies, or at any rate no reduction in them. Understandably too.

Cameron is talking directly to the British Euro-skeptics. He is pandering to the Opinion Polls that show a growing tendency of wanting to leave the EU altogether. Angela Merkel too has her own agenda, which is nothing other than her elections in about a year. The same goes for all the leaders. Not one of them has a word to say about the “European Project”. What it is supposed to achieve. How boosting the Economy on a European level will benefit every member state and perhaps help mould these states into a whole.

Nothing. None of that. No one believes in any of that nor has any interest in trying to create any European solidarity, any European identity. I think one of the main reasons for this derives from the “democratic deficit.” No one can feel any direct sympathy for institutions that impose all sorts of unpleasant things with no direct democratic legitimation. Pork sausages, Cockoretsi at best, wilful dissolution of social welfare and labour relations at worst.

But as I have said before, and will no doubt say again, the way The Frau has catastrophically mismanaged what began as the European sovereign debt crisis, has made the underlying European disunion toxic. Whether inadvertently or not, she has stoked and kindled the flames of hate. Of European hate which has caused the worst and most barbaric wars humanity has ever witnessed.

And no one appears to have any interest in trying to douse these flames or mend the situation in any way. We are back to national prejudices, power politics, the strong Germans stamping over the weaker ones with their jackboots and expecting everyone to fall in line with what they want.

None of this augers well for any kind of European Unity, let alone “solidarity”. And unfortunately any hope of some sense appearing at the very last moment, in what the Euro idealists say is “the way of Europe”, is becoming remoter by the day.

 

*The title of Mark Mazower’s excellent book on Europe.

The EU Budget

No surprise that the talks to determine the EU budget are in another chaotic mess. Oh but completely inconsistent. The Frau faction wants to INCREASE the budget. However, quite a number of other leaders of member states do not. They would like to reduce it. And this does not go for David Cameron alone who would settle with a freeze.

Mario Monti has joined David Cameron’s ranks, saying perfectly logically that you cannot raise the EU budget while pressing countries to cut theirs so drastically. Quite so. And there is indeed scope for cutting back quite a lot. Why does the Euro Parliament have to convene in both Strasburg and Luxemburg (or is it Brussels?). Why do commission personnel have to have so many perks and such high salaries? Why is there such waste and overlapping in Commission operational costs all around?

Not to mention why do they have to hold so many Eurogroups and summits and meetings and what nots, with all their dinners and teas and breakfasts and all that. Particularly when hardly anything is ever agreed in these. Of late, everything is always postponed for the next meeting and then the next one after that. Hardly very efficient, nor, I would say, all that “competitive”, is it? 

Mind you, the Commission employees have gone out on strike against cuts to their salaries. Quite understandable. No one enjoys salary cuts. No,

We could have a little more sympathy for them had they not whistled in the wind and looked right the other way when salaries, wages and pensions were (and are) being brutally slashed in countries like Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and perhaps worse of all Greece?

Solidarity matters. It is one of the virtues sorely lacking in the EU. At all levels.

Perhaps it is time to say goodbye?

The only way to go. Laughing!

The Underlying Cause Of The Mishandling Of The Eurocrisis

If there is one good thing (and there may be more than one) coming out of this Euroshambles, it is that the masks of hypocrisy are dropping off ruddy faces. (Hypocrisy in Greek is acting).

Yesterday’s failure to reach any agreement has highlighted what is wrong with Europe. It is not the budget deficits, it is not the debt, it is a grand failure to tell, and face, the truth.

The whole Greek fracas is as much about disinformation and denial of the truth as it is a problem of finances. The Frau had a populist ball with the Blame the lazy Greeks game which spread throughout Europe. Then the myth about how the hard working German tax payer was “giving” money to the lazy Greeks who sat in the sun all day doing nothing.

Never once was it mentioned that the Euro had been set up with faults, one of which was the complete failure to design some kind of “Surplus Recycling Mechanism”, which directly led to the weaker economies piling up debts and deficits which translated into the surpluses of the stronger countries.

And this failure to tell the truth continues as witnessed by German antics. Greek debt is completely unsustainable. The “program” everyone is congratulating PM Samaras of Greece for implementing is not only impossible to attain but will have disastrous consequences. Consequences that of themselves will lead to a default and a possible Grexit, and all that that might entail for the Eurozone.

Why? For petty self interest. The Frau wants to win the next election and has decided to keep Greece moribund and on life support till she does. She has consistently spun the yarn about the German taxpayer “giving” money to Greece, while carefully avoiding to mention that so far Germany has made some 80 billion from the Greek crisis through interest payments and the negative interest on German bonds achieved owing to the crisis.

Instead of opting to come clean and help solve the crisis, she prefers to take Europe to the brink of dissolution. No! She says. We will not write down Greek debt, even though we know it is unsustainable, even if this does lead to a break with the IMF and possible worse consequences. Why? Because if she tells the German electors the truth they might possibly not vote for her, because she will have admitted to lying to them through the teeth.

So unless Merkel and her side kick Schauble decide to become serious and responsible, and look further than their own reelection, things do not auger well for Europe, nor even Germany.

Europe Has Become A Disgrace

What are we to make of all the utter nonsense being spewed out with regard to The Greek Problem, due to be discussed this evening in the Eurogroup. I will not go into the details of the various propositions and stands being leaked out, demonstrating complete confusion and indecision while the realities of the problem are swept hastily under the table lest anyone notice the real filth that has been amassed.

Truth number one. Nothing of all of this has anything to do with “getting Greece back on track”, or with Greece at all. It is all to do with German petty politics and how nothing at all must be done that could jeopardize The Frau’s return to power in any way. The Greek problem was supposedly put on hold till the American Elections, now the idea is to put it on hold for almost another year till the German Elections. Is that any way to deal with such a desperate drastic economic collapse within the Eurozone?

Well yes. For the Germans. They have already established their protectorate there, so as with everything else it must bend to German wishes on this too.

It remains to be seen whether the whole thing will not blow up in The Frau’s face BEFORE her precious elections. But since she knows the Greek PM Antonis Samaras is completely servile and supine before her, rushing to carry out her most barbaric demands, she is not worried that Greece might rock her boat. And will once more agree to her worst excesses. But since this will lead to Greece ultimately exploding, one could wonder whether she may not have misjudged the time she has available.

Next piece of nasty truth swept under the carpet. In this horrible German Europe that has emerged rather than the European Germany, there is no way Greece can remain in the Euro. After all, the terms being imposed to achieve this, with worse to come, have ensured that there will be hardly any demand left in Greece, that the Greek future within the Euro will remain not only uncertain, but less and less credible, ensuring there will be no investment from anywhere.

In other words, there is no way Greece can remain in the Euro at all. And since the Greek public may have shown itself as incredibly cowardly and frightened so far, it is at least interesting that the percentage of Greeks waning to stay in the Euro at all costs has dropped by a drastic 20% since June. So frightened and cowardly we may be, but at least we are showing signs of not being completely dumb.

Now, the so called “showdown” between the IMF and the Euro tyranny over cutting Greek debt down to size, is again being treated by Europe in narrow self serving terms. No, we don’t want to take a loss on our loans to Greece. No we will not cut down Official Sector debt. Yes, Greece will pay us back in full. Yes we shall continue to destroy the country while keeping it on moribund life support for another twenty years. (And get our money back from a corpse? One has to wonder at the pig headed insistence.)

So the day has come where Europe has made the IMF look far more humane in comparison!!!! South America please note! Not only that. Today’s extreme ultra neo liberal German Europe has also made Obama’s US look like a socialist paradise in comparison.

Congratulations Mien Frau. You have achieved what would once have been considered impossible!

German Myopia And The Blame Game

So, we are being told, even the Bundesbank is beginning to sound alarmed. Germany is slipping into recession. Demand is down, exports are down, hence production down. And the country’s 0.2% growth in the third quarter of 2012 is expected to turn negative by the end of the year. Alarm!!!!! Not Germany!!!! The other countries can all go hang and self destruct through recession and depression, but not Germany!!!!

Nevertheless, the German leadership seems to have an inbuilt mechanism of denial of the truth. Their precious numbers show them without doubt they are headed for recession. Why? They ask themselves. They have a simple answer. The German leadership adores simple answers… not just simple ones, but facile answers that protect them from the underlying truths they would rather not accept.

So the answer is simple. It is all the fault of the European crisis that has pushed the EU/EZ into recession! In characteristic Shauble logic, it is some one else’s fault. It is always someone else’s fault. Which is how he countered American exhortations to stop with the austerity and stimulate the European economy instead. He told Timothy Geithner it was all the fault of the American sub prime bubble.

And no doubt that was part of the problem. The other part was the reckless lending of the European banks, in particular Deutsche Bank, to take a random example. And when it comes to the recession of the German economy which is important, whereas recession in any other country is not (according to the Schauble mentality), then the fault lies with the other Europeans. Not with Germany.

Does it not even cross their little minds that perhaps, just perhaps, the German insistence on the most stringent austerity ever encountered in peace time imposed on the Eurozone, might, just might have something to do with it? Because apart from the very guilty countries like Greece and even Spain now, what about the virtuous ones like Holland and Austria say?

The Frau, who has not a clue how the economy really works, was at the peak of her power trip when she imposed the maximum deficit clause on the EZ. That is, all EZ members signed up to never, ever allowing their budget deficits to exceed 3% on pain of the most terrible penalties. Now, did no one really think to point out that imposing further penalties on a country with a deficit problem would only increase the deficit? And worse, did not one of the other European (in)dignitaries, think they could perhaps point out, that if there was to be a maximum deficit then there should also be a maximum surplus level imposed?

And if The Frau may be excused for not having a clue how economies work, does that entitle ALL the others who signed this abomination with such servility not to point out that simple fact? That if all countries must have a deficit level of preferably 0.0%, then how is any country going to achieve a surplus if no one will buy any more?

Excess surplus should be recycled into deficit countries, through purchases of their products to stimulate trade. And if Germany thought it was a good idea for her to have ever increasing surpluses which she should horde at the expense of the struggling countries who were made to suffer, does this excuse every other Minister of Finance, every Euro Commissioner from gently pointing out to her, that what she wanted was goofy?

So Germany has not lost demand for her products from the distressed countries alone, not all of which are under bailout conditions, but also from the AAA rated countries of the north who were doing very well before The Frau decided to impose her Nonsense turned Vampire Economics on them too, instead of the reverse.

So after having very successfully bulldozed all her brain waves through a pathetic European so called leadership, whereby the economies of the EZ have been effectively from stifled to strangled to waterboarded, as is the case of Greece, The Frau now wonders why demand for her brilliant produce has dropped. That wasn’t supposed to happen*! She screams. And it is all the fault of the European recession, which, by implication is nothing to do with her!

Does she so conveniently forget the cause of the recession, the flawed, anachronistic economic policy she imposed by jackboot? Or does she really not realise what the heck she has been doing to Europe and hence the global economy? After all, if China is facing a problem it is also because The Frau has successfully ruined her markets in Europe. (The Chinese cheap clothes shops are closing down by the day in Greece, because there is no money left even for cheap clothes.)

Perhaps it is high time we stopped blaming Germany and put the blame squarely where it belongs. First and fore most with the (ir)responsible European Commissioner, Olli Rehn, secondly with the head of the Eurogroup (on his own admission more interested in getting re elected than doing what he should) Jean Claude Juncker and last but not least, on all the other EZ Ministers of Finance and Heads of state or government.

And there is no excuse for their criminal inaction. Aiding and abetting a crime is just as serious, if not more in many instances, than the crime itself.

 

*”That wasn’t supposed to happen”, was what the bewildered American crack commando troupes wailed when they were ambushed and cut down in Somalia some 20 years ago.

Older posts

© 2025 Parina

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑