So here we are at another impasse. In order for the 31 bn tranche in so called “bailout” money to be disbursed, Greece has to make cuts and taxation of 11,5 bn… no, make that 11,9 says Schauble, well okay, but… perhaps 13,9 bn is better… oh what the hell make it a round 15 bn for now, and then next year we will shave off another 15 bn because we won’t have achieved the targets.
There, now everybody is happy. What? The Greek people? They are not happy? Who gives a toss about the Greek people anyway? Next year we shall indeed introduce the “you’re lucky to still be alive” tax because that is all that there will be left to tax. But what a minute. What do I hear? Poul Thomsen of the infamous troika is also not happy? What else does he want!
The cuts are over 5% of GDP, the taxation is no longer just exorbitant but impossible (state revenues are already running at least 3 bn short of income taxes that should have been paid in by now just for this year), so what else does he want? What else can we give him? Blood?
Not quite. He says standing in imperial garb looking down at the arena. The gladiator Greek government is holding its blooded sword poised over the public sector employees after he has already run his sword through a quarter of private employees, half of small shop keepers, most of middling businesses and anyone else he could catch and slay without hurting his pet, the public employees.
In his show of slashing and axing all the others, with so much blood dripping from his sword he feels he has earned the right to save his pets. The public employees. So with sword in hand and a promise to the Emperor to kill off those left standing in Greece, he looks up at him, Emperor Poul, expecting to get the thumbs up for the public sector.
But no! Horror! After wavering and waiting till the Greek government gladiator has done its best to slash and axe everyone else, he suddenly turns his thumb down. No! He says. You’re always playing sneaky games with me to save your pets. No more. Slash 150,000 of them now! Or else!
So gladiator images aside, what is the state of play? Quite simple really. After benignly watching Europe tear itself to pieces and plunge its economy into recession, an outcome they have to admit, they initially gave their blessing and know how to achieve, the IMF has been given a jolt. Hey fellas, they say, after all that, Greek debt is not sustainable (hardly a surprise when more and more money was piled on to an over indebted economy to be laundered through Greece and given to the banks.)
So what do we do now? Well, under IMF rules (Angela please note) if debt is not sustainable it has to pull out. However since Greece is neither Botswana say of even Argentina in that it is a Euro currency country, we just can’t let them drop because what will happen to the Euro then? Otherwise we would have no qualms of course. As we have never had any ever before.
The solution is simple. Says the IMF. Another drastic haircut of Greece’s debt. That is the Official Sector should take the rap now, which means the rich north European Countries, Germany above all. Hey wait a minute! Screams Merkel. You can’t do that to me! I have elections coming! How can I tell my voters that we’ve lost all the money we ploughed into Greece? I can hardly tell them now that we didn’t plough it into Greece but through Greece to our own banks now can I?
Okay. Says the IMF. In that case give them the extension, there is no way they can meet targets in 2 years, (not even 100 years under this policy, bit still) and fork out another 30 to 50 bn to keep them going. What??? Splutters Merkel, choking on her beer. I can’t do that either! How could I possibly tell my voters that nothing worked (okay, well that I will blame on the Greeks themselves) and that we have to fork out More Money? They just won’t go for it. Not after the way I have painted the Greeks as lazy, profligate good for nothings, undeserving pigs, will they?
So now all of a sudden we start hearing strange noises from the Commission. Well, actually, you know, the Greek deficit is not nearly as bad as we feared. The short fall is much less. Don’t worry, they murmur behind their hands. We will see to it that the “independent” troika report is couched in terms that will make the disbursement to Greece possible. Of course we certainly won’t actually give them any more money, except for a bare minimum to pay the ECB in full for the Greek bonds it bought at rock bottom prices. Otherwise not a cent of what we have promised.
In this way we shall keep them hanging on for a about another year, while they complete the process of destroying their country, and drop them after The Frau has been safely reelected. Or maybe just before the election to gain maximum benefit from getting rid of Greece before the fall out hits us. The Great tactician is very pleased with herself. She knows that Samaras will do anything she tells him just for a pat on the head, even jump through a flaming hoop, or destroy his own country. So her brilliant well thought out scheme of kicking the can down the road will win again!
But hang on, Poul Thomsen, head of the troika mission and IMF representative is not playing ball. No! He says. We cannot fudge this. He says. The Greeks cannot be trusted. If they want any more financing they must fire 150,000 public sector employees on the spot. Now! But Poul, the other two whimper, if we push them, the coalition may break up! It won’t. Says Poul rightly. These stooges would vote in anything we asked for. Even rejoining the Ottoman Empire if that was what we told them to do.
Well okay, you are probably right there… But what about the people? What people says? Poul. The Greeks are not people at all. They are Guinea Pigs and quite expendable. But what if they start rioting in the streets? Gas them. Says Poul. That is what is usually done in Greece anyway. They could even fire rubber bullets at them. Like in Spain. Or if push comes to shove, real bullets. It always works. That is my position and that is final.
In the meantime Mr Roumeliotes, the Greek representative to the IMF during the Papandreou bid to have recourse to the fund, has come up with somewhat belated interviews to the American press and a book telling all. How from the beginning the fund saw this policy would be disastrous, that they only went along to keep The Frau happy and strange things like that.
Not to mention what Paul Krugman tells us that the IMF analysts have worked out (they really are very brilliant there and no doubt extremely well paid and tax free at that too) that if you impose austerity on an economy in recession things get much worse. I can only marvel at what must have been intricate mathematical calculations and models that helped them work that one out! (Or perhaps one of them just took a summer vacation to Greece).
So, since they cannot get through to the stubborn little Frau who has only the best intentions for herself, could it be the IMF will try to force her hand? How? By making the Greek terms so obnoxious, so impossible that the Greeks will finally rebel and shout out the Collective No! OXI! No more! And default themselves?
If this is their plan I hope they have taken the Samaras factor into account. He has already told The Frau that he sinned when he railed against the Memorandum and the way it was ruining Greece. He has already personally guaranteed that all Greek debt will be paid. (Interesting that one). And pledged Greece body and soul to carry out the most excruciating and destructive terms set by Europe.
P.S. And to think, Samaras’ grandmother, the aristocratic author P.S. Delta, committed suicide when she heard the German Army was marching in to Athens and occupying Greece.