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Month: July 2012 (page 1 of 3)

Heads Willfully Buried In The Sand

The Guardian blog on the Eurocrisis has just included a tweet from fiatcurrency that says:”Venizelos says that reality is Greek program is off track…. reality is you are broke. Full stop.”

This is the little boy in the crowd who screams, “The King has no clothes!” Greece is completely broke. Internally, within the Greek economy the Greek state has ceased payments. The Greek economy has collapsed and all the coalition government with the troika can discuss is, how are we going to effect the 11.5 billion in cuts?

The brilliant Venizelos (who is the architect of the second MoU which he himself signed but is now blaming) proposes Greece be given a further two years to “reach its targets” and that we put off across the board austerity measures till then. So what is he telling us? That there is no way any of this can work and that two years down the line after prolonged suffering then we will deal the final blow.

All this is totally absurd and just as absurd of the troika to be insisting on this path. Greece is broke. Piling billions in loans on her so she can pay off her debts by incurring more debts is moronic to say the least.

There needs to be a complete change in policy. We need to confront the real issue head on. Not only is Greek debt completely unsustainable but the Greek economy does not have a chance in hell of flourishing as long as it remains in the EZ (perhaps this is also true of other southern countries too).

Dean Baker has written a very interesting article in which he outlines the benefits of a Greek exit from the Euro but explains that it is the IMF and Germany (despite their repeated threats!) who don’t want this. He says: “… a Euro exit [for Greece] might lead to a stronger economy, not ruin.” and that this is what the IMF and Germany are afraid of since it will give countries like Spain and Italy ideas. And that is the truth.

The so called Greek government should pull its collective little head out of the sand and tell the Greek people the truth bluntly. Trying to stay in the Euro on these terms is catastrophic for the Greek Economy and the Greek people. There ARE alternatives, which will incur pain, but pain leading somewhere rather than this slow war of attrition in the trenches which is grinding us slowly and painfully into the ground, with only destruction and more misery in sight for all.

The State of Europe Today

The Coliseum in Rome is tilting, the Parthenon in Athens is in tatters, the Euro apparatchiks are in disarray and in discord. Little Wolfie, in his own by now crazy logic says there can be no easing in the terms of the Greek MoU because they have not met the targets! One would like to think that a high ranking official like the German Minister of Finances might just realise that the reason these targets are not being met is precisely because they are unrealistic and NEED to be changed.

After all, if all you have achieved is a Great Depression and the Greek economy is set to contract by at least another 7% this year and unemployment soaring, how, little Wolfie do you suppose the original revenue targets, for one, can possibly be met? But according to The Frau it doesn’t matter whether the Greek MoU actually achieves any results or not. No, all that matters is that the Rules be Kept!

Meanwhile after Draghi’s morale boosting assurances over the Euro, Junker seems to have come to the end of his tether and has actually voiced negative thoughts about Germany and how she is using (abusing?) Europe! Oh, and, he says, to all those who think that booting Greece out of the Euro will solve all problems, they just haven’t realised what the Euro’s fundamental problems really are!

It might have been more useful had he said this much much earlier. Because although true, the way the troika has contrived to effectively kill the Greek economy, it may well be too late to keep Greece in the Eurozone. And quite frankly, too cruel to keep Greece in the Eurozone only to save The Euro and The Eurozone, while not doing anything to rebuild the Greek Economy.

Greece’s debt is unsustainable, its debt/GDP ratio worsens by the day given the slashing of GDP month by month and year by year, and it cannot function with such a highly priced currency. True, it would be very dangerous for the rest of the Eurozone if Greece were either cut loose or were to leave by herself in utter despair. But then, does not this call for some creative thinking? Perhaps even some Economic sense? An in any case an end to The Frau and Little Wolfie’s arrogant Calvinist moralism in dealing with the Eurozone’s Economic crisis?

Oh, and as for the euphoria prevailing today under the Draghi effect, Junker’s lashing out at last, Timothy Geithner’s flash visit to little Wolfie and Mario Draghi, beware! If all this does not result in something really constructive and a real change of course, and soon, very soon, then I’m afraid  the end of the Eurozone may come sooner rather than later, and in a totally disorderly manner.

The Draghi Effect

The chairman of the ECB came across punching. He will do “whatever it takes”! to save the Euro. And the markets believed him. Perhaps that just goes to show what “the markets” verdicts are really worth, but anyway. He didn’t really say anything new, and there was no announcement of any real decisions, let alone of German agreement with anything positive. Nevertheless, the markets have bounced!

But “whatever it takes” and, the Greek PM’s pledge to keep Greece in the Euro “at all costs”… just what do these fine words mean and has anyone really pondered it? And I mean those uttering the powerful words, not those hearing them. As for Greece staying in the Euro “at all costs”, the current joke doing the rounds here is “oh yes, of course, we MUST stay in the Euro… No matter we won’t even have one Euro left in our pockets!” and that’s a mild version of what “at all costs” means.

As to Draghi’s “whatever it takes!” Sounds forceful, decisive, but what does it mean? And what do “the markets” think it means? Well the markets are more like teenagers high on drugs or something when it comes to heir judgement, and at the moment it is all whooppie! A new fix! And of course loadsamuny (to remember an old phrase) changes hands.

A more sober analysis shows that it is little more than pep talk. And everything, as always, remains at the discretion of Germany. Or in other words the whims and Nonsense Economics dogma of The Frau. So that is hardly something to inspire optimism.

So what has Draghi achieved? Just more Eurofudge, just another kick of the cranky can down the road. In effect what he has probably achieved is a relatively peaceful holiday month for The Frau who cannot be expected to interrupt her holiday! God forbid.

Jose Manuel Barroso Graces Athens With His Presence

From the very beginning of this crisis, which began as a sovereign debt crisis in Greece and has grown into a full blown crisis of the Eurozone (not least owing to the criminal mishandling of this crisis by The Frau and her coterie) Jose Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission and one of the prongs of the so called troika, has never once set foot in Athens.

Since his job description is President of the European Commission and all that that entails, this does seem like rather an inexplicable omission. Nevertheless he is due to grace us here in Athens with his presence today! Why? One has to wonder. What on earth has come over the boy? In any case shouldn’t he be setting off for his holidays like The Frau and little Wolfie while Europe burns? Sort of like last year. Are they going to make a habit of this?

Anyhow, Barroso is paying a visit to Athens. In person. Not via conference call or skype or anything else. Why? Some say he is coming to mouth the usual meaningless platitudes of yes, we will support Greece and yes we want Greece in the Euro, PROVIDED she sticks to the MoU! That is the plan that ensures the complete destruction of the Greek Economy and the eventual exit from the Euro, whether a meaningless ‘extension’ is given or not.

Would there be any point in that? I don’t think so. But this is Barroso who only does as he is told, so maybe it is just that. Another rumour going round is that he will come to insist on a complete restructuring of the Greek state, civil service etc. Now, if that were true it would be an excellent sign. Of at last, the troika nuts are beginning to get it! But this would have to entail a complete change of the austerity strangulation too. But that does not seem very likely.

Of course not! Were we to concede such an outrageous change for Greece, says The Frau, then all the vassals will be clamouring for same! And that will never do. The rules are the rules and they have to be followed. And who sets the rules? Well we do of course! The bullies on the block! And the weaklings had better cringe or else! So that does not seem very likely.

The last rumour going round is that he is coming to state perhaps the obvious. This plan is unworkable. There is no way Greece can keep up this charade of trying to implement The Frau’s Nonsense Economics. We wouldn’t have given a damn except that the point things have reached, Greece is simmering on the brink of a great social explosion which could lead anywhere. Given the outrage in Spain, this could indeed be contagious, and what we don’t want is European Revolution of uncontrollable proportions.

So? So, well we thought you might like to consider leaving the Euro altogether of your own accord. And to this effect we shall make you an offer you cannot refuse. Either continue to destroy your economy at a growing rate (remember GDP is forecast to fall by another 7% this year and that is their forecast which always falls short), and incur insurrections, social turmoil, blood in the streets, or else leave the Euro and we will give you a hand out and write down a good part of your debt.

That would be a good reason for Barroso’s visit, and would indeed make such a visit necessary. It would also vindicate Herr Rossler who may not just be making populist noises to gain votes. And perhaps all he has been culpable of is letting the cat out of the bag prematurely before the Grand Inquisitor so he can reap the electoral benefits!

However, judging by Europe’s that is Germany’s way of handling things to date, that probably is not on the cards. Yet. Still, I cannot foresee which of all the above it may be, or even if any of the above. Still for him to bother to make the visit at all after ignoring the festering problem for so long, one would like to hope that there will be some real substance to the visit and not just more hot air. Which will only help stoke the raging fire even more.

More Grief

The British have been shocked by the size of their recession. And so they should be. At least all over, they are saying and shouting that the Cameron carbon copy of The Frau’s Final Solution, has been a disaster. In Larry Elliot’s words, a “Catastrophe”. It remains to be seen whether David Cameron has the capacity to think at all and work it out for himself.

The Guardian gives us an interesting statistic, the U.K. economy is 4.5% lower than its 2008 peak, whereas the US economy is already 1.2% higher than its pre recessionary peak. The Americans have tried to stimulate the economy. They have not done nearly enough to regulate the financial sector, but at least they have not succumbed to the neo liberal free market dogma of screw the people save the banks.

At least Britain has reacted with shock at the realisation of where this policy has lead to. In Europe denial that there is anything wrong with the policy prevails. We have to watch and see what Cameron does now.

However, there is a very great difference between Britain and Europe. And that is Democracy. David Cameron is directly answerable to the British electorate and runs a high risk of getting booted out at the next election if he persists in this folly.  On the other hand in Europe, as it is, Democracy has been effectively abolished.

The decisions on the economic policy to be imposed are taken on the one hand by an unelected, unaccountable Eurocracy of nonentities who risk nothing at all if everything goes wrong because they are appointed. And on the other hand the decisions are taken by the powerful countries in the north with surpluses and imposed on the weak countries in the south (mainly) with the deficits.

Now here, Democracy works in reverse, because the politicians in the north are voted in by their own electorates, by the German electorate in Frau Merkel’s case, not the Greek, Spanish, Italian or any other. So she plays the populist card of blame the dirty lazy southerners who should be severely punished! This goes down well with her electorate and her approval rate soars.

No one ever bothers to explain to the indignant Germans say, that they would not have these surpluses without the deficits in the south. But in any case, owing to rampant populism, the German electorate probably wouldn’t give a damn anyway. Screw the lazy, undeserving southerners! Is the order of the day.

So, when those imposing this vicious, senseless and catastrophic policy are rewarded by their own electors, they have no reason not to persist in the catastrophe. And as for the nice people like Christine Lagarde, Herman Van Rompuy, Mannuel Barroso… well they are all so totally unaccountable to and in effect so absolutely disconnected from the people their decisions make suffer, that all they can say is

LET THEM EAT CAKE!

More Troika Nonsense Economics!

Europe is in turmoil! The Euro as cracking at the seams. The markets went nuts yesterday. Spain managed to sell its bonds today but at higher and higher interest rates. Moody’s changed its rating for Germany, Holland and Luxembourg to “negative” from “stable”. Naturally little Wolfie foamed at the mouth at this. (Not unlike Papandreou before him and Guindos now).

No! He says. We have a very stable economy! We remain the anchor of Europe! (I don’t suppose he has much seafaring prowess, or else he hasn’t realised that his anchor is now in such deep water that it is no longer of any use.) Our good friend the walrus Juncker also pipes up with mumbles of how strong Europe really is and how everyone is committed to the Euro and all that verbal, meaningless, hot air that has become second nature to all the Euro apparatchicks from Merkel to Rompuy (I take them in order of impotence… I mean importance!)

Yesterday’s cocky remark by that sinking-in-the-polls politician, Rossler that a Grexit does not inspire terror any more, has been roundly refuted by all quarters. A Grexit, those who do happen to know a little more about economics than the German and Eurocrat leadership appear to, state that a Grexit at this point would be disastrous and would lead to a rush away from ALL Euros, German ones too, and the inevitable dissolution of this imperfect currency.

Which brings us to the continued unbelievable idiocy of the troika in Greece again. What is the object of the exercise? To reduce the country’s debt/GDP ratio. How do they insist on doing this? Simple. Ratchet up the austerity even further. Suck at least another 15 or so billion OUT of the economy, slash all that is left of wages and pensions. Now, Greece is not only in its fifth year of recession, but its recession is forecast, for this year, to be something over 7%!!!

And since we all know how good these people are at forecasts, no one will be at all surprised if this year’s recession hits 12%. In any case, Greece is in a full blown depression. The troika’s imposition will only make a bad situation much much worse.

Which means, Greece’s GDP already in free fall, will be slashed savagely, which means, well yes! The debt to GDP ratio will rise exponentially!

How can intelligent people insist on policy which only looks at one side of the equation, debt, and takes measures that exacerbates the other side of the equation, GDP, and obviously, precisely because of that, only results in an increase in debt too!

Answer: Intelligent people? Where in Europe can you see one intelligent person?

Unfortunately the Euro will collapse, not because of profligate Greece (or Portugal, Ireland, Spain etc) nor because of a badly designed currency in the first place, nor the imbalances inherent in the system when crisis strikes, nor anything like that. All of which could have been addressed and fixed in time. Had anyone in power had the inclination, and perhaps above all the sense to do so.

After The Frau’s Well Deserved Holiday, What?

Well The Frau has indeed done an excellent job for German banks with all the Euros pouring in from the South (and elsewhere) in a desperate, panic stricken bid to find a safe haven. Of itself, even without the added spice of the inhuman austerity imposed on these countries by Germany, this would be more than enough to destabilise these economies.

So The Frau has achieved her object. To save the German banks while wagging her collective finger at the miscreants. This is a bit like a rape, isn’t it? The rapist always blames the victim for ‘having asked for it!”, doesn’t he? So here we are, the economies of the south, badly beaten and raped and mugged with our pockets emptied of every last cent, while Germany  smirks.

And so she should. She has got clean away with it this time, and everyone is blaming the “profligate” victims. You see? It needed a woman’s touch to do the job really well.

So now, state of play as we near The Frau’s Final Solution. Spain cracking up under the weight of its local economies going bust and its interest on bonds shooting up to 8%, that is effective exclusion from markets. Italy, pressure on her interest rates too with the Sicilian scare. Apparently this magnificent island is going belly up too. But, oh, this is Italy’s Greece (well yes! It was part of Magna Grecia now wasn’t it?) with profligacy being to blame again.

And Greece? After being bullied and terrorized into voting in the most inept, failed, useless people into government out of fear of being thrown out of the Euro, what do we get? Grexit by September!!! Mind you, for all my dear fellow electors here in Greece who actually believed in the humbug that Samaras and Venizelos were the right people to pull us out of the crisis and keep us in the Euro… well, I could say it serves them right, only all the rest of us are in the same soup too.

So The Frau will come back from her holiday, nicely refreshed, mission accomplished, ready to boot that disgusting cancer Greece out of the Eurozone in a timely manner towards the end of the year to gain maximum electorate advantage. Germany will have sucked up the very last dregs of capital from Italy and Spain, who will also be in line for a Euro exit, and Germany will reign supreme. It’s banks fully recapitalised, and the option of picking up anything it fancies dirt cheap from the collapsed Greece, that has already forfeited any sovereign rights it may have had, when she defaults.

And Angela Merkel will be crowned Empress of Europe! That is how it is done nowadays. Without armies.

Draghi Says The Euro Is Here To Stay

Mario Draghi has been doing his best to reassure, verbally, that the Euro is in no danger of breaking up. That there is a firm political commitment to the Euro and steps are being taken to ensure that it will continue on a new basis of fiscal, banking and political integration. See Reuters Report here.

Famous last words? Is the Chairman of the ECB perhaps ‘protesting too much’? Or is it just the famous Many Rice Davies quip of “well, he would say that wouldn’t he?”* So the question is why does he need to make such desperate assertions at all, and what is he basing these assertions on?

Well, he says, we have already made progress on integrating the European banking sector. Could have fooled me. Spain is still being told in no uncertain terms by little Wolfie that her banks are her problem and that Spain will take on any bank bailout as her own sovereign debt. And her spreads have shot up in the light of that remark.

Then as to this wonderful vision of a united, integrated Europe, with a uniform fiscal policy, political integration and all that. Sounds good and what we need perhaps. Until you realise that nowhere is it ever mentioned, even in passing that this full integration and necessary surrender of sovereignty by the member states should be effected through a democratic process.

Oh no, no, no, no! Unfortunately Nigel Farage, the notorious UKIP Euro MP is quite right when he says the EU has an allergy to democracy and has been doing everything it can to put a stop to this ridiculous and dangerous notion. No! What the likes of Mario Draghi, Angela Merkel and the various Nonentities such as the so called President of Europe Rompuy, appointed, unaccountable assorted Commissioners have in mind is the following:

All European nation States give up their sovereignty to “Brussels” and thereby relinquish any voting rights they may have had to anything in the EU. Thereafter “Brussels” will decide on everything from fiscal policy, defence, vassal status and the like, over which the said former nation states will have no say at all.

And of course the euphemism of “Brussels” will soon turn into “Berlin”. (Well it already has, hasn’t it?)

So how in all his optimistic, bullish assertiveness that the Euro is here to stay, does the banker Draghi really expect all this to materialise? And even suppose that it does, how does he expect it to work? And even if he believes it will work, how long does he think this procedure will take and does he really believe there is that much time ahead? And if he does, why has he started making anguished noises about the Euro not breaking up? Perhaps he’s seen the writing on the wall?

And if any of these tiny nonentities, under the illusion that they are running the show, really believes in further European integration, why does not even one of them pay lip service to the obvious?

Real, sustainable European integration can only be achieved through democratic vote. There is a European Parliament. Why not hold special emergency elections to this body which will then be empowered with the integration of Europe on democratic terms?

Simple answer. Because, according to those that have hijacked Europe and all their well fed minions, Parliament, directly voted by the people of Europe cannot be trusted to get it right.

And getting it right means keep screwing the people hard so the banks and the Euro nomenclatura can continue living it up!

Now if that is not a recipe for total collapse I don’t know what is! So, signor Draghi, if you really are earnest about saving the Euro, next time you come up with pep talk statements like that, why not suggest that the European Parliament should be the body entrusted with saving the Euro?

Not likely to happen. For one, neither Draghi or anybody else will just be appointed by the Hijackers any more. They will have to go through Parliamentary hearings and procedures to be confirmed. And that ISN’T what any of these banksters and their ardent supporters wants, now is it?

 

*In the trial of the famous Profumo- Christine Keeler scandal at the Old Bailey, Mandy Rice Davies (a colleague of Christine Keeler’s) was asked why Lord such and such had denied any wrong doing or orgies etc. Her disarming answer was, “Well, he would say that wouldn’t he?”

Summer Recess! Hooray, Hooray!

Okay. So all problems in the Eurozone solved, by the heroic, tireless Germans once again! The Bundestag generously and selflessly voted in favour of the Spanish Bank bailout. Provided, of course, that it be firmly understood that this loan will be born by the Spanish Taxpayer and therefor worsen the Debt to GDP and deficit figures. How else can it be? Oh, and of course, there must be a Memorandum of Understanding to ensure the further crippling of the Spanish Economy.

Today’s Eurogroup teleconference will convene EXCLUSIVELY to rubber stamp the German decision. So what else is new? And then, problem solved! We all take ourselves off to our preferred summer spots, be they sea side or mountain, and when we come back we will hammer out the actual details. No need to rush. The Frau’s plan for the Final Solution of Europe is proceeding beautifully as planned.

None of these ridiculous Monti inspired direct bank bailouts. No! Ridiculous! It’s the taxpayer that needs to be screwed and that is what we firmly intend to do! So off for the summer hols, problems all solved, nothing requiring any urgency till we come back. Just the way it happened last year with the so called ‘solution’ of the Greek question with that appallingly designed, and utterly ineffective, bond swap. But no matter. Greece can go to hell as far as we care. And the sooner the better.

Little Wolfie told the Bundestag yet again that Spain is not Greece! We shall see about that. Next year? Do we even have that long as a Eurozone or even a European Union I wonder?

Meanwhile, although all problems have been solved and we’re off to the Alps or the Riviera, Mediterranean yields have climbed into the danger zone again of over 7% for Spain and over 6% for Italy. But no matter. All they have to do is stick to the rules of the recession inducing programs,  hike taxes again and all will be well. We KNOW what we are doing and don’t let anybody ever doubt that! Understood? Click heals and salute.

But what about these department stores closing down in Germany? Neckerman is it? Too bad. But it wont make any difference to the juggernaut German Economy which is far superior to any other in the whole world! You hear?

Well yes. Unfortunately we have heard words to this effect before.

Euro Complacency And The First Signs Of Madness

This morning, here in Greece, a spokesman for the smallest, supposedly left wing party of the three party coalition currently pretending to govern Greece, was interviewed. He is a young man and looks rather more like a Yuppie than any kind of left winger. But then his party, the Dimar, is about as left wing as the PASOK party is socialist. But be that as it may.

Anyway, this wretched fellow was going on about how the leaders of this hapless coalition are trying to find the money, aka the people’s blood, demanded by the Godzilla troika. He kept insisting that there were ways and means and that we won’t stick it to the people, even though the technocrat Finance Minister, in whom we all have the greatest of confidence, tends to add the ominous, ‘not if we can help it’. Because we all know that if Greece continues down this crazy path there will be no way they can help anything any more.

So, as the merry Greek coalition continues to pretend it is trying to crunch the uncrunchable numbers, the whole Euro project is slipping from bad to worse and nearing, if it has not already reached, the point of no return. So this affable young man is asked what the government is thinking of doing if the Euro disintegrates.

Answer, oh that isn’t going to happen! It is not in Germany’s interest so she will not let the Euro disintegrate. Not a moment of doubt in his confident little mind. But, the journalist insists, have the coalition party leaders discussed the possibility? No! Comes the answer. Not at all!

Why should they? No doubt they all subscribe to the illusion that, oh well, don’t worry, that is the way of Europe. It fumbles, it procrastinates, but in the end a solution is always found and the day is always saved.

For months and months, many a wise person, Professor Varoufakis among them, has been saying that the leaders of Europe are in deep denial. What more evidence do we need of that? Let us examine our spokesman’s certainty.

It is not in Germany’s interest to let the Euro collapse. He may well be right about that, but does Germany know it? And even if she does, what has she been doing to avoid such an eventuality? Furthermore, at this particular stage of play we have arrived at, is there really anything Germany could do, given her ingrained mind set, at such short notice to avoid the collapse?

So the European stages of madness: Complacency (still going very strong) like a belief in almighty God, a belief in almighty Europe always getting it right in the end, so, shrug of shoulders, why should we worry? Denial, Euro crisis? What Euro Crisis? The Euro is just fine! It’s just these despicable, lazy profligate Greeks who’ve mucked up their Economy… oh yes, not just the Greeks but also the Irish… well, and the Portuguese… but what do you expect of such sub human races? Oh! The Spaniards too? Hmmm… well, okay… Italy…?

No but it’s all their fault! The Euro is doing fine! Next stage of madness, absolute divine certainty that they know what they are doing. Okay, well, we’re having a little problem with the sovereign debt issue and the enormous deficits of the profligate sub human nations and the banks maybe. But not to worry. Nothing that some good hard German discipline cannot fix! Pound them down into the ground with stringent recession and everything will be all right!

What? Things getting worse? Oh well, it is just the fault of those pesky Greeks again! They never could get anything right, could they? Besides, they need to be severely punished for daring to hold elections! Not once but twice! If that isn’t lunatic extravagance then I don’t know what is!

But not to worry. We have the answer. Just suck all their life blood out of their veins vampire like and they’ll start feeling much better. You’ll see. That is what little Wolfie says. Years of austerity for them, if not austerity for ever for them, that’s all they deserve anyway! And then everything will be solved! Just let then starve. Let them all starve! The Spaniards too! They couldn’t get it right either. So that is the way to save the Euro. And I won’t accept any arguments to the contrary!

And that is the point we have reached. Complete madness.

Do you really honestly believe that the EU, as it is currently structured and with this arrogant Nonsense Economics culture that has gripped it, will manage to get anything right?

I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I don’t thinking Nouriel Roubini is either.

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